Big Marley’s UFC Vegas 55 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:

Scoring

This weekend, we have an 11-fight card in Vegas back at the Apex, and we are in the small cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Jailton Almeida $9,400

Almeida will be my favorite play on the slate if I can afford him. He is +100 to win in round 1 and he will score over 100 points if that happens, and he has one of the highest ceilings with the takedowns and groundwork he can do before then. Since he is the highest priced and highest owned guy, I think we can get away from him in GPPs and just hope others outscore him. I would lock him into a cash game lineup though with his -600 betting line.

GPP fight of the week – Joseph Holmes $8,800 vs Alen Amedovski $7,400

This is a solid GPP fight to target with its -280 FDNGTD line. They are both low-level fighters who could make a mistake and get finished early. Amedovski is live for a KO and Holmes is live to dominate him and finish on the ground. They both can hit 100+ in a win so this fight probably ends up in more than 50% of my lineups and Holmes is my preferred play. I wouldn’t want to trust these guys in cash games, but I would go heavy in GPPs just for the ceiling. Amedovski will be more of an MME guy for me though and Holmes will be my preferred hand build target. If this fight goes the distance, then Holmes is the only one who has a shot at a high score, but he will need to keep the fight on the ground to do it.

Underdog play of the week – Polyanna Viana $7,900

This is another good GPP fight to target but I will be more taking a stand on the underdog. I like Viana to lock up a submission and that should score well if it happens. She has scored 106, 95, and 111 in her 3 UFC wins and if she puts any of those up here then she will be on the optimal lineup. Ricci also has a path to a high score so if you are picking her then she is a fine play as well, but I will be heavier on the Viana side and I like her in all formats.

Fade of the week – Elise Reed $8,500

Reed is a striker who most likely won’t be attempting any takedowns and if she doesn’t get a knockout then she really has no shot at 100+. She won her last fight and only scored 70 DK points. At $8.5k she is going to be priced out of my player pool and I don’t see her even getting to 10x if she does win the fight. I would rather target almost every other favorite on the card so she will be X’d out of my personal player pool, even with 150 lineups.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 204-189 for +239.86u (+$23,986) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

BigMarley3