If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
Scoring
| Moves | |
| Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Significant Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Control Time | +0.03 Pts/Second |
| Takedown | +5 Pts |
| Reversal/Sweep | +5 Pts |
| Knockdown | +10 Pts |
| Fight Conclusion Bonuses | |
| 1st Round Win | +90 Pts |
| 2nd Round Win | +70 Pts |
| 3rd Round Win | +45 Pts |
| 4th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| 5th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| Decision Win | +30 Pts |
| Quick Win Bonus | +25 Pts |
This weekend, we have a 14-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $300,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Mason Jones – $9,500
Onama is making his UFC debut here on short notice and he has a perfect 8-0 record with all 8 wins coming by finish. He was also 10-0 on the amateur scene. I thought he looked pretty good. He has fast hands with KO power, and I like his in and out movement as well. I think he does need a knockout here though because Jones is a good striker as well and he can fight at a high pace that I don’t think Onama can match. If the striking isn’t going well for Jones, then I think he can fall back on wrestling and win the fight there. Mason Jones is the biggest favorite on the card, so I think he is the best pay up option for cash games. He also has a -150 ITD line so he is a solid GPP play as well.
GPP play of the week – Nicolae Negumereanu – $9,100
FDNGTD is lined at -270 in this fight so that means this is a good GPP fight to target. We probably get a KO either way here so both guys are in play, but for me it is the Negumereanu side. He is the guy I want to force exposure to and probably go overweight on. I am not an Ike believer at all, and I really want to fade him, but he does have early KO potential and he is cheap so I probably will just have a small amount of exposure just in case. I wouldn’t trust either guy in cash games, but I wouldn’t talk you out of using the Negumereanu side there either. He is the pick and I think he gets a finish before round 3.
Underdog play of the week – Khama Worthy – $7,400
This is a great fight to target both sides of because we should see a KO. We have a -290 FDNGTD line and a -176 that the fight won’t start round 3. Worthy is probably my preferred play because we do need underdogs and he has a real path to 100 points. I don’t feel good about him winning this fight and I am actually picking Herbert to get the KO, but I think Worthy has one of the higher ceilings if he is able to get the win because it could be a round 1 knockout.
Fade of the week – Francisco Trinaldo and Dwight Grant
The only way this fight will end up on the optimal lineup is by a KO. They are both slow paced fighters and neither one will be able to chain wrestle here. If we see a decision, then the winner will be lucky to score more than 60 DK points. This is favored to go the distance at -150 so that is probably good enough for me to just X this fight out of my player pool. This is my least favorite fight on the card from a DraftKings angle and I will just be hoping there is no early KO.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 179-167 for +222.42u (+$22,242) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
