If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
Scoring
| Moves | |
| Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Significant Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Control Time | +0.03 Pts/Second |
| Takedown | +5 Pts |
| Reversal/Sweep | +5 Pts |
| Knockdown | +10 Pts |
| Fight Conclusion Bonuses | |
| 1st Round Win | +90 Pts |
| 2nd Round Win | +70 Pts |
| 3rd Round Win | +45 Pts |
| 4th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| 5th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| Decision Win | +30 Pts |
| Quick Win Bonus | +25 Pts |
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Vegas back in the Apex. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $333,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Julia Avila – $9,300
Avila is my cash game play of the week because I think she is the safest win. The only way I see her losing this fight is from an armbar. Avila is the better fighter everywhere and she is the biggest favorite on the card. I do worry about her ceiling if she looks to keep this fight standing but in cash games I don’t worry as much about that and I want to lock in wins with high floors. Avila can score highly as well so I am not against her in GPPs, I just think she is the top cash game choice of the favorites this week.
GPP play of the week – Shavkat Rakhmonov – $9,100
This should be a good GPP fight to target but Rakhmonov is my preferred play and I like him in all formats. All his wins are finishes and I think he can really rack up points on a gassed Prazeres in this fight if it does go into round 2 or 3. I think a 1st round finish from Prazeres is his most likely path to victory here and that breaks the slate if it happens, so I do want some GPP exposure to him as well just in case. Rakhmonov will be my guy though and I will be going overweight to him, and he is probably my favorite target on the card. He has a +100 ITD line and I think he scores well no matter what round that comes in unless he spends all of round 1 on his back.
Underdog play of the week – Daniel Pineda – $7,300
This is a GPP underdog I like but he is the boom/bust type of play we want to target in tournaments. I don’t even feel good about Pineda getting the win here but if he does win, he will very likely score well and probably end up on the optimal lineup. All 27 of Pineda’s wins (would be 29 if two weren’t overturned) have come inside the distance and he can finish on the feet or on the mat. He is a kill or be killed fighter and a lot of his wins come in round 1. If he gets a finish in this fight, then I think he ends up on the $200k lineup and that is why he is my underdog play of the week.
Fade of the week – Damir Hadzovic – $8,500
It’s hard to fade the favorites this week but Hadzovic is my least favorite of the bunch. Hadzovic is low output on the feet, and he doesn’t wrestle, so we are relying on a KO for him to score well. Yancy’s chin is a question mark, so the KO potential is there, but in Hadzovic’s 2 UFC decision wins he scored 69 and 62 DK points and that isn’t going to cut it at $8.5k. I don’t know that I full fade him if I am making 150 lineups, but I won’t be including him in my hand builds and I actually think Medeiros wins this fight on volume.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 167-155 for +222.59u (+$22,259) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
