If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
Scoring
| Moves | |
| Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Significant Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Control Time | +0.03 Pts/Second |
| Takedown | +5 Pts |
| Reversal/Sweep | +5 Pts |
| Knockdown | +10 Pts |
| Fight Conclusion Bonuses | |
| 1st Round Win | +90 Pts |
| 2nd Round Win | +70 Pts |
| 3rd Round Win | +45 Pts |
| 4th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| 5th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| Decision Win | +30 Pts |
| Quick Win Bonus | +25 Pts |
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Vegas back in the Apex. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will also probably throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Main Event Stack – Chan Sung Jung + Dan Ige
This is an easy stack in cash fight, and I might even stack it in tournaments. There are no must have favorites on this card and nobody is a lock for 10x. This fight should have a winner locked in for over 10x, and it could be a war where they both combine for close to 200-points. This is the mid-range fight of the week, and the winner should score over 10x and either guy can score 100+. This is in the small cage and that should force the action. This is by far my favorite fight on the card, and it is too close to want to take a big stand on either guy. I will mix up my GPP exposure between the two but the first move in cash games is to just throw in Jung and Ige and then move on.
GPP play of the week – SeungWoo Choi – $8,600
I like both sides of this fight, but Choi is my preferred play of the two. If Erosa does win I think there is a good chance he is on the optimal lineup, and I would think he for sure scores more than 10x. In his last two wins he scored 131 and 104. His decision win in 2015 would have scored 82. I am fine with that 82 at this price and if he scores over 100 then he is on the optimal. I think Choi is the better wrestler of the two though and he throws heat on the feet. Erosa’s chin is a liability and I do think Choi tests it in this fight. I am going to take Choi by 1st round knockout here to score over 100-points and that is why he is going to be my GPP play of the week.
Underdog play of the week – Aleksei Oleinik – $7,000
This is a GPP only underdog play, but I think if Oleinik does get this win he will end up on the optimal lineup. His best path to victory is always an early submission and I think Spivac could be in trouble if Oleinik gets him to the mat. This seems like an early finish or bust type of fight for Oleinik at 43 years old, but if that happens, he is going to score well. I wouldn’t trust him at all in cash games, but I do like him for GPPs and I will take him to get one last in the UFC here against Spivac.
Fade of the week – Dhiego Lima – $9,000
Lima likely needs an early finish to pay off this $9k salary. He doesn’t have high enough output to score 100+ in a decision and he is the last $9k guy I want in my lineups. I don’t know that he is a full fade because Matt Brown is 40 years old now and not as durable as he once was. But I will be under the field on Lima and as long as he doesn’t get a 1st or 2nd round KO then I don’t see him scoring even 10x his salary. I won’t be throwing Lima into any of my hand builds this week but maybe I get 5-10% in the mini max.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 167-154 for +223.93u (+$22,393) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
