If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
Scoring
| Moves | |
| Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Significant Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Control Time | +0.03 Pts/Second |
| Takedown | +5 Pts |
| Reversal/Sweep | +5 Pts |
| Knockdown | +10 Pts |
| Fight Conclusion Bonuses | |
| 1st Round Win | +90 Pts |
| 2nd Round Win | +70 Pts |
| 3rd Round Win | +45 Pts |
| 4th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| 5th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| Decision Win | +30 Pts |
| Quick Win Bonus | +25 Pts |
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $350,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will also probably throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Damir Ismagulov – $9,500
I don’t love the price on Ismagulov for GPPs because he is the most expensive fighter on the card, but he is only +200 ITD. If he doesn’t finish this fight, then he likely isn’t paying off that high salary. He is the “safest” play on the card though with his -600 betting line, so I do like him for cash games and I am not as worried about his ceiling in those formats. These other fighters with higher ceilings on this card are fine for GPPs but they also have low floors, and I don’t love that for cash. Ismagulov isn’t a must have in cash games, but at his price, that is my favorite way to use him this week.
GPP play of the week – Bruno Silva – $9,300
Silva broke the slate in his last fight scoring 132 DK points and he has an even easier opponent this time. He did get 3 KDs to get that score and we can’t expect that again, but he does have an ITD line of -125 which is the highest on the card. I think Silva can win and finish this fight anywhere, so I do like him in all formats. He is not a high-volume striker though so he will need the finish or a dominant ground performance to score 100+. I like him in all formats, but he is the guy with the easiest path to 100+ IMO and that is why he is my GPP play of the week.
Underdog play of the week – Edmen Shahbazyan – $7,300
This is my 1st or 2nd favorite fight to target in GPPs. I think both guys have clear paths to 100+ and we do have a nice -240 FDNGTD line. Edmen is the better striker in this matchup, especially early. He is a dangerous striker as well and IMO his best path to victory is an early knockout. If he does get a KO in this fight, then he is likely scoring over 100-points and we will need him in our lineups. This isn’t an underdog pick I am confident in, but it is the underdog with the highest ceiling, and he is very live as well. Load up on this fight but if Edmen wins then it might be a “no Edmen, no cash” card.
Fade of the week – David Dvorak – $8,800
Dvorak is my fade of the week because of his price tag. He is only -140 on the betting line but he is $1,400 more than his opponent on DraftKings. I would rather pay up for fighters with better chances of finishing and I see this being a very close fight that goes all 3 rounds. Dvorak has scored 58 and 74 DK points in his 2 UFC wins and that won’t cut it at $8.8k. He is +300 to win ITD and that might have me X’ing him out of my player pool even with 150 lineups.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 163-147 for +228.24u (+$22,824) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
