If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
Scoring
| Moves | |
| Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Significant Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Control Time | +0.03 Pts/Second |
| Takedown | +5 Pts |
| Reversal/Sweep | +5 Pts |
| Knockdown | +10 Pts |
| Fight Conclusion Bonuses | |
| 1st Round Win | +90 Pts |
| 2nd Round Win | +70 Pts |
| 3rd Round Win | +45 Pts |
| 4th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| 5th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| Decision Win | +30 Pts |
| Quick Win Bonus | +25 Pts |
This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card back in front of fans and I am pumped! DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in & $200k goes to 1st place with $750,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will be throwing 150 in the mini max to work on my MME game. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Kamaru Usman – $9,400
Usman is the best play on the slate, and he should have a grappling heavy game plan. He scored 156 DK points in their first matchup and nobody else on this card even has that kind of ceiling. He is going to be the highest owned fighter on the slate so that is why is he a lock in cash games. If you want to get away from the high ownership, then we do that in GPPs, but I want a ton of him there as well and I expect a dominant decision win.
GPP play of the week – Jimmy Crute – $8,900
I think Crute is the better fighter everywhere in this matchup and he said he wants to maul Anthony Smith. That is what I expect here and if he does, he scores well on DraftKings. I like him in all formats, and he can get an early KO or submission. He can also rack up takedowns and control time and score well in a decision. Crute is my favorite play from the non-championship fights on this slate and I think he could have a top 3 ceiling on this card. I expect the championship fights to be heavily targeted this weekend, so I am hoping Crute goes a bit overlooked and ownership isn’t too high.
Underdog play of the week – Rose Namajunas – $7,200
This is my favorite of the title fights and I think it should be a high-paced fight where the winner scores well. This fight will be in most of my lineups, but my preferred play is going to be Rose, and she is my top underdog on the card. I think Rose can win this fight on the feet or the mat, but the mat is where she should have the most success and I could see a submission finish from her with a high score. If she wins a striking match then I would expect that she slows the pace down a bit by staying on the outside, but she should still easily pay off this salary in a 5-round win. If any of the championship fight underdogs win, they are probably on the optimal lineup. Rose is the one I am picking to get that upset so that is why she is my underdog of the week.
Fade of the week – Dwight Grant – $9,200
Grant is going to be my fade of the week this week because of his price. He does have 1-punch KO power and he could end my night if he gets a 60-second KO here. I don’t think he has a chance at the optimal unless he gets a 1st round KO though. I would also rather target any of the champions around his price tag and that is another reason he is a full fade for me.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 159-138 for +239.62u (+$23,962) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
