Big Marley’s UFC Vegas 21 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:

Scoring

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $350,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Belal Muhammad – $7,200

Belal is my lock for cash games this week. I think the main event stack is fine but if I am only using one of them it is for sure Belal. He is $1,800 cheaper and he is the one that pushes a pace. Even if he loses a decision, he should still score 40+ points. He is also live for the win. If Edwards gets the win, I don’t know that he will even reach 10x his $9k salary. If Belal wins, I would be shocked to see him not get 10x his $7.2k salary. I like him in all formats but he is the first person that would go into my cash game lineup this weekend.

GPP play of the week – Misha Cirkunov or Ryan Spann

This is an all-in fight for me in GPPs. This has the highest FDNGTD line on the card at -425 and no other fight is near that. That, plus this being our mid-range fight of the week is why it is all-in for me and Cirkunov is my preferred play of the two. He will probably be a core play for me because I don’t want to split my exposure evenly here and I think he can finish on the feet or the mat. He does have a very questionable chin so maybe he gets put out early, but I don’t think Spann has a ton of power and he is more of a finisher on the mat. Avoid in cash games but load up in GPPs.

Underdog play of the week – Matheus Nicolau – $7,500

Nicolau is my preferred play in this fight with Kape and he has a high ceiling if he has a grappling-heavy game plan. He scored 117 and 122 in two of his three UFC wins and those are the fights he landed takedowns in. He also landed multiple KDs in both as well. He will be one of my top underdog targets of the week and it would be smart of him to look for takedowns in this matchup.

Fade of the week – Jonathan Martinez – $9,300

There are no easy fades on this card because almost every fighter looks like they don’t have a big ceiling and maybe 90-points from one of these $9k fighters will end up on the optimal. Martinez is my least favorite of the group and that is why I am making him my fade of the week. He should be looking to just strike in this matchup. For him to score over 100, he will need a finish. He doesn’t strike at a high enough pace for him to get there in a decision if he isn’t landing any takedowns or knockdowns. He could get that finish and end up on the optimal lineup, I just would click on all of the other $9k names before I click his personally.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 157-134 for +243.36u (+$24,336) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

BigMarley3