If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
Scoring
| Moves | |
| Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Significant Strikes | +0.2 Pts |
| Control Time | +0.03 Pts/Second |
| Takedown | +5 Pts |
| Reversal/Sweep | +5 Pts |
| Knockdown | +10 Pts |
| Fight Conclusion Bonuses | |
| 1st Round Win | +90 Pts |
| 2nd Round Win | +70 Pts |
| 3rd Round Win | +45 Pts |
| 4th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| 5th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| Decision Win | +30 Pts |
| Quick Win Bonus | +25 Pts |
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card back at Fight Island. This is a solid card to start the year and DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $300k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Austin Lingo – $9,000
I think Lingo is one of the safer options in the $9k range this week and he has a big ceiling as well. I think he is a level above Jacob Killburn and he feels like a safe play for 70+ which is fine in cash games assuming not all favorites win. He also has high upside having finished 4 opponents in the first 35 seconds of the fight which would be good for an extra 25-points now. I like Lingo in all formats but if he does go out there and get 70-75 in a win, that won’t be enough in GPP so that is why he is my cash game play of the week.
GPP play of the week – Phil Hawes vs Nassourdine Imavov fight
This is probably my 2nd favorite fight to target on DraftKings. It has the highest FDGTD line on the card at -245 and I like both sides of the fight for that reason. Hawes is my preferred play of the two because I think he is more likely to win early and I do see him possibly dominating round 1, if not finishing. He is in play for the 60-second bonus which makes me like him even more. However, if he doesn’t get a 1st round finish, he might gas and get finished himself. Imavov can rack up volume on Hawes in rounds 2 and 3 and he could finish in either of those rounds with a KO or submission. He also has a lot of line value with Hawes dropping from -185 to -130, but the DK salaries staying the same. I don’t love either side of this fight for cash games, but this is close to an all-in fight for me in GPPs.
Underdog play of the week – Justin Tafa – $7,600
This is another fight I like on DraftKings and Tafa is my preferred play of the two. I do want exposure to both sides of this fight but Tafa is the guy I would want to get more leverage on over the field, and I think he has the higher ceiling of the two. He has big power, and he goes for the kill. He has never been out of the 2nd round and he is one of the 60-second bonus potential fighters on this card. If Tafa wins, I think it is likely a KO, and that will score well. I don’t care for this play in cash games though so more of a GPP underdog with boom/bust potential.
Fade of the week – Ramazan Emeev – $9,200
Emeev is basically going to be priced out of my lineups. He is coming off his highest scoring win in his last fight and that was only 82 DK points. He is $9.2k in this matchup and I think he has to get an early finish to end up on the optimal at that price tag. He should be low owned and maybe he lands a KO to score well, but that is a risk I am willing to take. Emeev is just not a high output fighter and I think all of the fighters priced around him have a better chance at getting that early finish. That makes Emeev my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 154-132 for +238.40u (+$23,840) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
