Big Marley’s UFC Vegas 17 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

Scoring

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. This is a solid card to end the year and DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $18 buy-in & $50k goes to 1st place with $200k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Tafon Nchukwi – $9,400

Nchukwi was a huge Light Heavyweight and now he is making the drop to 185 lbs. You can tell just by looking at him that he has the power to knock out anybody with the right punch. Now at 185 lbs he will probably have abs on his back, so he could be a scary prospect and he looks legit. Jamie Pickett has big power too and I don’t love the floor for Nchukwi here, but I don’t love the $9k range in general this week for cash games and Tafon is my most confident pick of the group. He has the best betting line on the slate at -350 and he also has a great ITD line at -180. He is a great GPP play as well but he will be one of the highest owned guys on the slate, so I wanted to go with a sneakier play for my GPP play of the week.

GPP play of the week – Antonio Arroyo – $8,900

I like Arroyo this week for GPPs because I think he goes underowned and I see him getting a knockout. He is going to have a big size advantage over Winn here and he is the much more technical and powerful striker. He also has a submission game if he is put on his back, but I like him for his kicks and KO potential. Arroyo ITD is +145 which is pretty decent and there are a lot of big names around Arroyo who also have better stats and ITD lines that I think people look to instead. I have at least 6 other favorites being higher owned than Arroyo this week and I am picking him to get an early KO here. The earlier the better for DK and if it comes in round 1 he could be a contrarian piece to a winning lineup and that is why he is my GPP play of the week.

Underdog play of the week – Cody Durden – $7,500

I like Durden as a GPP underdog this week because he is cheap, and he has 100+ upside. Durden should be the better striker in this matchup, and I think he is probably the better wrestler as well, so maybe he can use that wrestling in defense to keep this fight on the feet. Flick has a weak chin and if he is stuck standing in this fight, he could get clipped and knocked out. If that happens in round 1, Durden is probably going to end up on that $50,000 lineup with 100+ DK points here. I don’t feel confident in him getting the win, but I do like his ceiling here and he has a clear path to victory through the striking game.

Fade of the week – Anthony Pettis – $9,200

This is a risky fade because Pettis is the more talented fighter in this fight, and he has the potential to finish on the feet or on the ground. The reason I am fading him is because he has to get a finish to pay off this $9.2k price tag. Pettis is not a volume striker at all, and he hasn’t landed more than 1 takedown in almost a decade. His points are going to come from significant strikes and a possible win bonus. He has never even landed 100 significant strikes so he is going to have a hard time paying off this high salary and he has a big enough name that ownership will probably be higher than it should. I don’t see me having a single Pettis lineup this week and if he wins a decision here, I think I will be safe.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 153-130 for +243.72u (+$24,372) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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