Big Marley’s UFC 256 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

Scoring

This weekend, we have a 10-fight PPV card back at the Apex in Vegas. This is a low-key awesome card and DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $18 buy-in & $150k goes to 1^st place with $600k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Cyril Gane – $9,200

Usually, I wouldn’t pick a Heavyweight favorite as my cash game play of the week, but I do think Gane is a fairly safe play here. He has a high ceiling with his KO ability, and he has a -140 ITD line. I am more confident in him getting the win than I am in Chase Hooper so that is why I like him more than Chase, and I think they both score more than Torres if they all win, so that is why I didn’t choose her here. JDS ITD is +550 so I think Gane has a decent floor here but a loss from any of these heavy favorites could sink our night in cash games. I think Gane does pick up a KO here though so that is why I would start my cash lineup with him this week.

GPP play of the week – Daniel Pineda – $8,300

Pineda is a finisher and he looked great in his return fight to the UFC. He has 27 wins on his professional record and all 27 are finishes. He has 4 wins on his DK log and all of them scored 110 or more DK points. This should also be a high paced fight and he can get a KO or a submission in this one against Swanson. If Pineda does win this fight, he probably scores 100+. At $8.3k that is going to put him on the optimal lineup so that is why he is my GPP play of the week. He could end up being the highest scorer on the card and he has 8 fighters priced above him so he is easy to afford and he probably won’t be as highly owned as he should be.

Underdog play of the week – Charles Oliveira – $7,600

This fight is the real main event for me. I cannot wait for this fight and the winner is going to score well on DraftKings. This should be a high paced fight and if Do Bronx is able to get the win, there is a good chance he ends up on the $150k lineup at his price tag. I just don’t see how Oliveira can win this fight and not score well, so that is why I like him as my favorite underdog play of the week. He has scored over 90 DK points in 7 of his 8 victories on his DK log and with the pace Ferguson is going to bring I think he will do it again here if he is able to get the win. I am not confident he gets the win; I am just confident he scores well on DK if he does.

Fade of the week – Tecia Torres – $8,900

With only 10 fights are the card, everyone is in play in GPPs. Torres is even in play because she should be low owned, and she is the biggest favorite on the card. She could finish and score well; she has just never done that before so I will likely fade her this week because I think every other favorite on the card has a higher ceiling. Torres has 10 fights on her DK log, and she has never 10x’d this $8.9k salary. The highest she has scored is 86 DK points and if she gets that here, she won’t be on the optimal lineup. She should win this fight, but I don’t see her scoring 100+ and that is why she is my fade of the week for GPPs. I do think she is in play for cash games though because she is the “safest” win on the card, and she has a higher floor than most of these other heavy favorites.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 152-128 for +244.72u (+$24,472) since May 19^th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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