If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
Scoring
| Moves | |
| Significant Strikes | +0.5 Pts |
| Advance | +3 Pts |
| Takedown | +5 Pts |
| Reversal/Sweep | +5 Pts |
| Knockdown | +10 Pts |
| Fight Conclusion Bonuses | |
| 1st Round Win | +90 Pts |
| 2nd Round Win | +70 Pts |
| 3rd Round Win | +45 Pts |
| 4th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| 5th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| Decision Win | +30 Pts |
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. This is a solid card and DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Main Event Stack – Marvin Vettori + Jack Hermansson
This is a stack in cash week. Not because I think this main event is going to score 150+ DK points, but because this is a close fight that should have a floor of 100. We want others to make mistakes in cash games and pick the loser of the main event solo. We are not looking to hit 6 wins for 600+ points with our cash game lineup. If that is what you are shooting for then you are making a GPP lineup. In cash games we only need to beat half of the field and we can take a loss or two and still do that. I would start my cash lineup with these two fighters and lock up the winner and 100+ points. This should be a fun fight and either guy can score 100+ in a win but having the loser with 20 or less alone in your cash lineup most likely sink your night.
GPP play of the week – Roman Dolidze – $8,700
Dolidze is one of my favorite GPP plays this week because I think he can finish this fight on the feet or on the ground and he has a -110 ITD line which is the highest on the card. He also scored 109.5 in his debut and if he does that again at $8.7k, he will be on the optimal. The worry with him would be that he doesn’t finish and if that is the case, he won’t score high enough to pay off this salary. We are shooting for upside in GPPs though and I think Dolidze has more upside than maybe all 5 fighters priced above him this week. That makes him my GPP play of the week and I do like him to get a knockout or submission in the 1st or 2nd round.
Underdog play of the week – Cody Durden – $7,700
This fight has one of the highest lines for Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision at -275. I give Flick the grappling edge and I think Durden could be in trouble if this fight hits the mat. However, I do like Durden on the feet here and I don’t think he will want to grapple in this matchup so he should use his wrestling as defense here to keep this fight standing. Flick has been (T)KO’d 4 times in his career and Durden can test his chin here. If Durden is able to get an early knockout here, he could break the slate at $7.7k so I think he is one of the better underdogs to target in GPPs this week. He does have a low floor though so I would probably stay away in cash games.
Fade of the week – Jake Collier- $7,400
There is no way I can put any money on Collier at this point in his career. He stepped away from the sport for 3 years and he showed up twice his size in his debut a few months ago. Not only did he have one of the worst weigh-in performances, but his showing in the Octagon wasn’t any better and he got smoked in 45 seconds. Villante isn’t a guy I love to trust either but I do think he can avoid getting knocked out in the 1st or 2nd round and if that is the case I don’t see any path to Collier scoring well.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 151-127 for +244.22u (+$24,422) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
