If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
Scoring
| Moves | |
| Significant Strikes | +0.5 Pts |
| Advance | +3 Pts |
| Takedown | +5 Pts |
| Reversal/Sweep | +5 Pts |
| Knockdown | +10 Pts |
| Fight Conclusion Bonuses | |
| 1st Round Win | +90 Pts |
| 2nd Round Win | +70 Pts |
| 3rd Round Win | +45 Pts |
| 4th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| 5th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| Decision Win | +30 Pts |
This weekend, we have an 10-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. This isn’t the greatest card but DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $20 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $350k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Anthony Smith – $8,500
With the real main even in Blaydes and Lewis being canceled, the Smith/Clark fight is our new main event, and it has been moved to 5-rounds. I do think Smith already deserved to be the favorite and this is a huge step down from the competition he has been facing, but I think 5-rounds helps his chances of winning and scoring well on DraftKings. I like him in all formats now and if he doesn’t get knocked out then he is going to have a decent floor for cash games. He can get a finish on the feet or on the ground in this matchup so the ceiling is there and with this being 5-rounds, I don’t know that Clark can lay and pray his way to a decision anymore. If Clark does have a wrestling-heavy game plan and this fight hits the championship rounds he might gas and get finished. You can stack this fight in cash games if you want as well but if we are choosing a side then my preferred play is Smith.
GPP play of the week – Josh Parisian – $9,000 or Parker Porter – $7,200
I absolutely hate this fight, but I think we have to target it in GPPs. I don’t love picking either side here, but we have a -490 FDGTD line so we probably see a knockout. Parisian is the preferred play with his -135 ITD line. I do think he is the better striker and if he gets a 1st or 2nd round TKO then he has a good chance at the optimal. Porter is a big boy as well and if he gets that 1st or 2nd round TKO at his price, he will probably break the slate. So, I need some exposure there as well. I probably won’t be all-in on this fight, but I do think we need to take shots on both guys if MMEing.
Underdog play of the week – Norma Dumont – $7,900
I think this is a sneaky good fight to target in GPPs. I don’t see either fighter getting too much ownership and I am willing to roster both, but Dumont is my preferred play. Dumont looks like she will be the aggressor and she has power. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a TKO from Dumont either so that makes me like her even more, but she is already one of my favorite underdog targets because I am picking her to win. Evans-Smith is in play as well because she strikes with volume and she could land some takedowns along the way. Dumont was also knocked out in her last fight so maybe she has a chin issue that Evans-Smith can check. Not likely but I am willing to get a small amount of Evans-Smith this week and Dumont is a dog that I like in all formats and I will look to be overweight on her.
Fade of the week – Gina Mazany – $8,600
Mazany is going to be priced out of my lineups at $8.6k. She might end up on the optimal at low ownership, but I can’t pay that price for her and I think Ostovich is a very live underdog in this matchup as well. Mazany is 1-4 in the UFC and in her 1 win she only scored 77 DK points. I think this is a matchup that the UFC would like to see Ostovich win, for obvious reasons, and that is another reason Mazany is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 149-127 for +239.30u (+$23,930) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
