Big Marley’s UFC 249 DraftKings Fantasy Breakdown

mma, ufc, ufc on ESPN, marley, draft kings, fantasy, preview, breakdown, betting

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

Scoring

Moves
Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

 

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Florida that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some amazing contests for us to win a bunch of money on this week. The main GPP is a $20 buy-in and $200k goes to 1st place with a total of $1,000,000 being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $200k. I will probably throw a handful of lineups in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Dominick Cruz – $7,400

Cruz is my cash game play of the week because he carries one of the higher floors on the slate. He is hard to finish, and he strikes at a high pace and is hard to hit, so I could see him putting up 40-50 or more in a loss. I am totally fine with that in my cash lineup. With 5 rounds to work with I think his floor makes him a cash lock for me and he is a live dog in this matchup as well. He has never scored less than 100 DK points in a win, so he carries a nice ceiling as well, but his price tag allows us to pay up for other favorites we want in our lineup.

GPP play of the week – Vicente Luque $9,000

Luque will be a core GPP play for me this week and I like him in all formats. He has scored over 100 DK points in 7 of his fights and one of those fights was against Price where he scored 111 with his 2nd round submission. I think he is better everywhere except power and he has one of the higher ceilings on the card. The only real worry with him is being knocked out but I don’t see this fight going to decision so if he wins I think he scores well and GPPs are all about boom or bust fighters.

Underdog play of the week – Yorgan de Castro – $7,600

I like De Castro here because he is cheap, and he has 1st round KO potential. I also think Hardy will be fairly popular this week so if you can get that KO from Castro then not only do you get a big score at lower ownership, but you knock out 30-40% of the field who were on the other side as well. I only like this move for GPPs, but I will be sure to get some Castro in my lineups and ideally, I will be overweight to the field.

Fade of the week – Carla Esparza $8,400

Carla is my fade of the week because I just don’t want any investment to this fight on DraftKings. I don’t think she has the style to score highly in a win and this line has a -450 Fight Goes To Decision line. She does have the edge in wrestling here, but I don’t see her racking up more than 5 takedowns in this fight and if she gets them I doubt she gets many advance points and I’d be surprised to see her get a submission.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 119-88 for +251.76u (+$25,176) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

———

This post is courtesy of BigMarley3

BigMarley has his plays for UFC 249 now live & available on MMAOddsBreaker.com

Get on board with one of the best handicappers in the world and start making money today!

Three tipped plays and DraftKings analysis coupled with breakdowns of every fight!

Follow on Twitter: @BigMarley3

Click On His Name Below For More Information

BigMarley3

#TeamMMAOB 💰

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

https://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/bigmarley3/?ref=1

mma, ufc, ufc 249, odds, betting, picks, bets, gambling, anthony pettis

UFC 249 Prop Betting Selections

MMAOddsBreaker Staff Picks – UFC 249