UFC on FOX 8 KeyArena, Seattle, Washington Saturday, July 27, 2013 Lightweight bout: Danny Castillo (-210) vs. Tim Means (+175) Fight Breakdown: One of the prelims on the UFC on FOX 8 card is a lightweight bout between Danny Castillo and Tim Means. Castillo is a -210 favorite (bet $210 to win $100), while Means is a +175 underdog (bet $100 to win $175) at Several Bookmakers. Castillo (15-5) is a wrestler fighting out of the Team Alpha Male camp who is 5-2 in the UFC with wins over Paul Sass, John Cholish, Anthony Njokuani, Shamar Bailey and Joe Stevenson and losses to Jacob Volkmann and Michael Johnson. He also went 5-3 in the WEC with notable wins over Ricardo Lamas and Dustin Poirier, with losses to Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone. Basically, the 33-year-old is a solid fighter who is definitely of UFC caliber, but he’s likely not going to be a title contender anytime soon because of his inconsistencies. Although he does have a well-rounded skill-set with good takedowns and power in his punches, he himself has been knocked out on multiple occasions when he’s fought better strikers and that is obviously a concern against Means. For Castillo to beat Means, he has to get the takedown because, even though Duane “Bang” Ludwig has helped out all the Alpha Male fighters’ striking, it’s still going to be inferior to Means’ striking, which is some of the best in the UFC lightweight division. Means (18-4-1) is a striker who is 2-1 in the UFC with wins over Justin Salas and Bernardo Magalhaes and a loss to Jorge Masvidal. The 29-year-old has a lethal muay Thai attack and he’s captured 13 of his career victories by way of TKO. In his loss to Masvidal in his last fight, Means’ showed holes in his takedown defense, but he has stated he’s worked on that aspect of his game with Aaron Simpson in preparation for this bout against Castillo, a fight that Means took on short notice. If Means wants to get his hand raised, he will have to either outpoint Castillo on the feet or outright knock him out because if he gets taken down, the judges will side with Castillo if he’s on top. Fight Prediction: This should be a very competitive fight and it could play out similarly to the fight between Castillo and Njokuani at UFC 141. Castillo edged that fight with his takedowns, and that’s going to be his path to victory against Means, but if Means can stop enough of the takedowns and do some damage on his feet (as well as do damage off his back), the judges may very well side with him. This is a Pick ’em fight and can go either way but I believe Means’ superior stand-up will be the difference and he will win a decision. Adam’s Pick: Means via decision (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: At +175, I believe Means is worth a shot as the dog in a fight I believe should be very competitive. Although I will lean a decision victory for Means since Castillo is a very game opponent, it wouldn’t surprise me if he did get a TKO stoppage either, so I would pass on those props (even though the lines are tempting to bet) and just bet the moneyline in this fight as it’s the safest bet you can make on Means and it still presents great value at +175. Update: Means missed weight, as he came in at 160 pounds for the fight with Castillo, and is no longer one of my most recommended plays, although I still think he has a chance to win the fight.
