O’Malley & Dvalishvili headline the UFC’s first ever event from The Sphere in Vegas with a very exciting undercard.
For me it is pretty straight-forward with predicting how this fight ends and it ultimately falls on how Merab gauges the distance and defends what is coming his way from O’Malley as he looks to take him down.
O’Malley was able to nullify anything Sterling did when he took the title from the former champ in August of 2023. Sterling’s style is much different compared to that of Dvalishvili and has to time a takedown correctly with the right opening. Sterling tried single leg kicks to throw off O’Malley but they were easily telegraphed so Sterling was never able to find a good opening to shoot for a takedown. Eventually, O’Malley got very comfortable in the standup and made Sterling start backing up a lot. The former champion got a bit desperate as he was making no significant progress in winning the fight and decided to throw a lazy strike moving forward with his chin right up in the air, got caught with a counter for his troubles that sent him to the ground for the knockout finish.
While O’Malley is more than capable of recreating a finish against Dvalishvili, I think his window is much smaller and tougher. Dvalishvili is a much better fighter in the standup compared to Sterling – his hands are tighter when throwing, his footwork is much more fluid, and he sets up all of his takedowns better and has more variety on which to work with on getting his opponents to the mat. Even if Merab struggles early on securing takedowns his pace and willingness to move forward is always in his back pocket. So O’Malley will constantly have to work to defend the clinches and grappling of the challenger.
Dvalishvili has been hurt before so he needs to be extremely cautious early on while O’Malley is fresh but not being completely gun-shy with his attacks. The longer Dvalishvili waits to start attacking a leg or a takedown the better it favors the champion.
There are books offering Merab at (+115) which is a 46.51% chance of winning. I like Merab’s chances here and actually think he should be around a (-150) to (-200) line.
I like the title to change hands in the main event on Saturday night. I lean decision as Merab is great at smothering his opponents and just values control on the ground over looking for a finish. However, if O’Malley tires out enough he could leave himself open for a submission such as a choke of some sort.
Best of luck and thanks for reading!
