Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler II
A rematch from their 2021 bout which saw Oliveira capture the vacant lightweight title after holding off a rallying Chandler to finish him by TKO in the early parts of the second.
You can find my older write ups and see I had a pick and bet on Oliveira by TKO. He has improved so much as a fighter – specifically his stand-up game. He is no longer just a dangerous jiu-jitsu guy on the ground but a very well-rounded and deadly stand up fighter. In Oliveira’s earlier days of fighting we would see him wilt under pressure and lose fights which a lot of public eyes thought he could have continued. He was able to prove doubters wrong in the Chandler fight and hold off an onslaught from him in round one, sneak in a left hook and finish him in the first minute of the second round.
My early notes on breaking down the first fight is the suspect defense of Chandler and his chin. He can get wild and explosive in exchanges which has come back to bite and cost him in fights. He did have Oliveira dead to rights but Oliveira was able to recover on the ground and survive. I am actually leaning Chandler here as a bet on the money line. Not because I think Chandler will necessarily win but I do like his value on 2-1. Chandler has chances to win here and even the score but, he needs to be more careful in protecting chin whilst being the aggressor here and getting his punches off first. He has his wrestling to fall back on but it is not in his best interest due to the dangerous ground game that Oliveira possesses.
My concerns on Chandler is his time away from the octagon which is two years removed from his fight with Poirier. Also, the fact that Chandler is now 38. Chandler has never really had a great chin and with aging you can almost be certain of the regression in his ability to take shots. While both fighters are in their mid-to-late 30s I like taking a shot on Chandler here due to his price and the fact that I think this is still a 50-50 fight.
Thanks for reading and best of luck!
