Whichever way you choose to play this fight I would not recommend betting on Ngannou as chalk. Current odds at the time of this piece is (-325) which is just absurd to bet.
Ngannou has that power in his hands which will always be the last thing to go for fighters whether it is in MMA or boxing. He can truly knock someone out at any moment in the fight. However, there are plenty of question marks surrounding Ngannou on his return to the cage this weekend…
First there is Ngannou’s age: 38 years old. I get it – you do not have to worry nearly as much with age in heavyweight MMA as you do in the lower weight classes. The technique, speed, and age for example does not show as often in the heavyweight division as it would in the lightweight division. It is still worth noting though that Ngannou is closing in on 40 and he has not competed in an MMA fight since January of 2022 which is well over two years ago. Cage rust is real and staying active in the sport (or any sport) plays a major role. Ngannou after departing the UFC also had ACL reconstructive surgery and while it was successful we have not seen him compete in MMA since then. He has had two boxing matches – one against Fury which went the distance and another in which we saw him get flatlined by Anthony Joshua in March. It was a quick night for Ngannou as Joshua finished him in two rounds with relative ease.
This is a fade on Ngannou and I like these spots to fade the older fighter who has wear and tear on his body, has not competed in the sport 33 months, and coming off a big time KO earlier in the year. PFL wants Ngannou to win here – he has a stake in the company, he is a big time signing for their organization, and will lead the launch of the PFL Africa card in 2025. This is not something crazy to predict a win for a younger and active Renan Ferreira who has finishing capability with knockout power to upset the investment that PFL has put in place. I do not think it is a stone-cold lock here for the underdog to win but the price is worth it.
Bet: Renan Ferreira (+260)
Thanks for reading and best of luck!
