Prop: Canelo by TKO (+200)
It is Cinco de Mayo weekend so you know a big Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez fight is sure to take place.
The Mexican legend is looking to make another successful defense of his undisputed super middleweight crown as he meets Jaime Munguia Saturday night in Las Vegas from the T-Mobile Arena. While it is definitely not the preferred opponent by media and public for Alvarez it is sure to add to his ever-growing legacy.
Alvarez will be turning 34 in July and I have mentioned in my past few breakdowns of his that he is starting to show the hundreds of boxing rounds and fights he has been in. Canelo is still very elite and at the top but we have begun to notice changes in his fights. Mainly his ability to keep a strong pace the later the fight goes. The conditioning issue will always be a concern to make note of as he gets older and continues to put his body through hell.
Munguia is getting his first shot on the big stage against the biggest name in the sport and the 27-year-old has done everything he can to earn it. Most recently dispatching of John Ryder in January for the opportunity.
I like the shot on Canelo to finish this fight and it originates from Canelo’s viscous body work which we still see a lot of from his left hook. I do not expect Munguia to take center of the ring and control the fight with his emotions and the big moment feels taking effect. Canelo has done this over and over again. The most crucial part for Canelo is to control and manage his energy output. Munguia is an offensive machine but where he lacks is his ability to defend and avoid what is coming back his way. He is a fan’s favorite style with being able to hit and get hit. If you pay attention to the fight Munguia had with Derevyanchenko it is clear Munguia gets very reckless in the moment trying to attack. I think Canelo will give attention to the body of Munguia and look to break him down from the midsection and from there it could open up a solid counter to Munguia’s chin leading to an eventual finish and successful defense for the king at super middleweight.
Thanks for reading and best of luck!
