MMAOB staff writer Adam Martin takes a deeper look at the main event of UFC Vegas 51, a five-round welterweight bout between Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad. The event takes place on Saturday, April 16 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Vicente Luque (-170)
Luque (21-7-1) is the No. 4 ranked welterweight in the UFC. The 30-year-old Brazilian-American is an elite welterweight who is closing in on getting a title shot. He has won his last four straight fights over Michael Chiesa, Tyron Woodley, Randy Brown, and Niko Price and he finished all four of those fights. He has been a devastating finisher throughout his career who can take out his opponents both on the feet and on the mat. He has shown some holes in his striking defense and his takedown defense, but offensively there aren’t many fighters who can go toe-to-toe with Luque. He already has a win over Muhammad that needs to be mentioned as well as the two fought back in 2016 and Luque won the fight by first-round knockout. Both men are different fighters now, but given how dominant of a performance Luque had the first time around, it will be interesting to see what kinds of adjustments both fighters make in this rematch.
Belal Muhammad (+150)
Muhammad (20-3, 1 NC) is the No. 5 ranked welterweight in the UFC. The 33-year-old American is one of the top welterweights in the UFC after having picked up wins over the likes of Stephen Thompson, Demian Maia, and Randy Brown over the years. Muhammad is a very strong wrestler who is able to take down and control most of his opponents, and on the feet, he is an active striker. We have seen him get cracked and wobbled over the years, including by Luque in their first fight, but overall he is pretty durable and hard to finish. Muhammad has a lot going for him right now, and if he is able to beat Luque in this rematch, he will move one step close to a 170lbs UFC title shot.
Fight Breakdown: This rematch between Luque and Muhammad should be an intriguing matchup for as long as it lasts. The first time these two met was back in 2016 and Luque won convincingly. Since then, both men have been two of the best welterweights in the sports as both men have improved every aspect of their games to both crack into the top-five at 170lbs. This is such an important fight for both guys in their quest for a title. However, while I do think Muhammad has improved his game, I think Luque is even more improved. I also view Luque as the more well-rounded fighter who possesses more danger and finishing prowess. Unless Muhammad can get Luque down to the mat and just wrestle him for five rounds, I don’t see him winning his fight. Luque is the more accomplished striker and he also has a nasty submission game to deal with. All signs point to Luque winning this fight, and there’s no reason to think he can’t finish Muhammad again.
Prediction: Vicente Luque
