MMAOB staff writer Adam Martin takes a deeper look at the main event of UFC 269, a five-round UFC lightweight title bout between Charles Oliveira and Dustin Poirier. The event takes place on Saturday, December 11 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Dustin Poirier (-165)
Poirier (28-6, 1 NC) is the No. 1 contender in the UFC lightweight division. The 32-year-old American is 20-5, 1 NC overall in the UFC. He has fought and defeated many of the best fighters at both 145lbs and 155lbs including Conor McGregor, Max Holloway, Dan Hooker, Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje, and Anthony Pettis. One of the top strikers in the division, Poirier has excellent boxing skills and he has huge power in his hands. He also has solid grappling skills, especially offensively, not to mention a good chin and great cardio. Training at American Top Team, Poirier has steadily been improving in his MMA career. A win over Oliveira and Poirier will be UFC champion.
Charles Oliveira (+145)
Oliviera (31-8, 1 NC) is the UFC lightweight champion. The 32-year-old American is 19-8, 1 NC overall in the UFC and he is currently riding a nine-fight win streak. In his last fight, he knocked out Michael Chandler to win the vacant 155lbs belt. In addition, Oliveira holds numerous other notable UFC victories over the likes of Tony Ferguson, Kevin Lee, Jim Miller, Jeremy Stephens, Clay Guida, and Darren Elkins. One of the best grapplers the UFC has ever seen, Oliviera has the most submission wins in UFC history with 14 tapout victories. In addition to his grappling, Oliveira also has really improved his striking and he is now an elite lightweight. After running through the competition over the last few years, Oliveira has proven to be a very difficult out at 155lbs.
Fight Breakdown: This should be a very intriguing matchup between the two best lightweights in the UFC right now. Oliveira has been on a roll for a while now, while Poirier has looked great as of late. This is not an easy fight to predict, but I am leaning towards the champion to get his hand raised. The reason why is that I believe Oliveira’s grappling is going to be showcased in this fight. Poirier only has a 61% takedown defense historically which is not good. Historically, it feels like Poirier’s bottom game is his biggest hole. Against both Dan Hooker and Khabib Nurmagomedov, he got taken down in those fights, with Nurmagomedov getting the submission. If Oliveira can get Poirier down and take his back, there is a good chance he can get the finish. Yes, Poirier has looked great lately, but McGregor is a striker and Hooker isn’t an elite grappler. Based on how strong Oliveira’s grappling has looked as of late, I believe he is going to be able to get Poirier down to the mat in this fight. A finish is certainly on the table given that it is a 25-minute fight, but either way, I believe in this new, improved, confident version of Oliveira, and I believe he will get the upset win.
Prediction: Charles Oliveira
