Glover Teixeira Wins By Submission (+675)
By far one of my favorite bets in terms of value this weekend. Glover has had one of the best career turnarounds in MMA of recent memory. It has been seven long years since his first title shot against Jon Jones in which he lost a one-sided unanimous decision to one of the greatest fighters of all-time. Fast forward many years later and Glover is riding a five-fight win streak with four of those five wins coming by finish at a ripe 42 years of age. If he is to win this fight I think submission has good value behind it. Glover is so talented on the ground and a legit black belt in jiu-jitsu. Glover will need to avoid the power of Jan in the standup department until he can secure takedowns and work his talent there. I don’t expect a submission for Glover early on in the fight. Glover has powerful ground and pound when on top and will look to implement that until a submission opportunity opens up for him later on in the fight – such as rounds 3-5. Of course Glover can be finished as Jan has big power and Glover is pretty chinny nowadays but he finds ways to stay in the fight and get wins. At (+675) I will take a shot on Glover grabbing a submission to become the new light heavyweight champion.
Petr Yan Wins By Unanimous Decision (+240)
There is a better number on Yan to get a unanimous decision victory as opposed to just a decision and I can definitely see him getting the better of Sandhagen on majority of the rounds to gain a unanimous decision by all three judges. I am willing to take that shot because I do see Yan as the better fighter overall with better hands, striking, combinations, etc. Sandhagen is definitely a game fighter and will be a tough fight but I see Yan getting the better of the exchanges as the fight progresses. Sandhagen is at his best when he is pressing the action with the cardio advantage and can walk down his opponents. You will not find a more dangerous fighter than Yan who can match that same type of game plan of Sandhagen. Of course Sandhagen could find a way to win due to his toughness, power, and willingness to exchange in the pocket but I have to side with the violent but talented Russian here to get the decision in what should be fight of the night.
Islam Makhachev Wins By Submission (+245)
I was initially picking Makhachev to win by decision and while I still think there is a good chance of that happening I have to take a shot on him just schooling Dan Hooker on the ground and attempting submission, after submission, after submission until Hooker gives up and taps. Hooker will try to play defense for as long as possible in hopes of keeping it on the feet but it will just be a matter of time until Makhachev grabs a leg or locks up his body for a throw. From there it will be all Makhachev on the ground as he is the superior grappler and submission artist. Hooker may be able to survive to a decision but I will roll the dice to see what kind of statement Makhachev wants to make if he ever wants a crack at the title one day.
Thanks for reading and best of luck!
