MMAOB staff writer Adam Martin takes a deeper look at the main event of UFC Vegas 38, a five-round light heavyweight bout between Thiago Santos and Johnny Walker. The event takes place on Saturday, October 2 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Thiago Santos (-170)
Santos (21-9) is the No. 5 ranked light heavyweight in the UFC. The 37-year-old Brazilian has been in the UFC since 2013 and he has racked up a 13-8 overall record in the Octagon during that time with fights at both 205lbs and 185lbs. Since 2018, Santos has been exclusively fighting at 205lbs where he has gone 3-3 with wins over Jan Blachowicz, Jimi Manuwa, and Eryk Anders, with losses to Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira, and Aleksandar Rakic. A true knockout artist, Santos has won 15 of his 21 career victories by way of knockout. He has shown time and time again that he has stand and trade with the best of the world and he often comes out on the right side of the decision. At age 37, however, it’s possible that Santos is on the decline period in his career. But he still appears to be in phenomenal physical shape and it’s possible that he still has a few good knockouts left in him.
Johnny Walker (+150)
Walker (18-5) is the No. 10 ranked light heavyweight in the UFC. The 29-year-old Brazilian has been in the UFC since 2018 and since then he has racked up a 4-2 overall record with wins over Ryan Spann, Misha Cirkunov, Justin Ledet, and Khalil Rountree Jr., with his lone losses coming against Corey Anderson and Nikita Krylov. A devastating striker, Walker has won 15 of his 18 career victories by way of knockout. He is a very dangerous and tall standup fighter who holds a long reach and he is also unorthodox with his strikes. Grappling-wise, Walker needs to work on his takedown defense and get-up game because he’s a bit of a fish out of the water on his back. But as long as Walker can keep his fights on the feet, he will have the chance to knock out anyone at 205lbs.
Fight Breakdown: This should be a good scrap between two of the best light heavyweights in the sport for as long as it lasts. Santos has been one of the best strikers in the UFC 205lbs for years, but at age 37 I do believe he is nearing the decline phase in his career. I also don’t think he has looked the same ever since the Jon Jones fight where he suffered serious knee injuries. As for Walker, he has had his own ups and downs, but at age 29 he is still very much in his prime and he has the potential to still improve, whereas I think Santos is a completed product at this point. I am worried about Walker’s cardio if this fight goes past the first couple of rounds, obviously, but I think he might be able to put Santos away before that happens. Give me Walker to score the upset over Santos with a knockout win as he announces himself as a serious light heavyweight title contender.
Prediction: Johnny Walker
