MMAOB staff writer Adam Martin takes a deeper look at the co-main event of UFC 266, a five-round UFC women’s flyweight title bout between champion Valentina Shevchenko and challenger Lauren Murphy. The event takes place on Saturday, September 25 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Valentina Shevchenko (-1500)
Shevchenko (21-3) is the women’s flyweight champion and the No. 2 ranked P4P fighter in women’s MMA. The 33-year-old Kyrgyzstan native joined the UFC in 2015 and she has since gone 10-2 overall during her time in the Octagon, with wins over the likes of Jessica Andrade, Jessica Eye, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Julianna Pena, Holly Holm, and Sarah Kaufman, with her lone losses in the Octagon coming against women’s MMA GOAT Amanda Nunes. Shevchenko is an exceptional MMA fighter who is talented and skilled in all facets of the game. She has amazing striking and knockout power, she has slick submissions, she has the wrestling to get it there, and she has the confidence in belief in herself that a champion needs. Shevchenko is a perfect 7-0 since dropping down to 125lbs and she will look to make it 8-0 with a big win this weekend over Murphy at UFC 266.
Lauren Murphy (+800)
Murphy (15-4) is the No. 3 ranked women’s flyweight in the UFC. The 38-year-old American has been in the UFC since 2014 and she has gone 7-4 during that time with wins over the likes of Joanne Calderwood, Roxanne Modafferi, Andrea Lee, and Barb Honchak. A former Invicta FC women’s bantamweight champion, Murphy is the ultimate grinder. She wins the majority of her fights by being tougher than her opponents, by being the better grappler, by having better cardio, and by having the better chin. She is currently riding a five-fight win streak and she has looked impressive during that stretch with two of those wins by coming by stoppage. Murphy is a good fighter, the problem is she is fighting one of the best women’s fighters in the world this weekend in Shevchenko. As good as Murphy is at utilizing her grappling-based grinding style, it’s just very hard to imagine that sort of gameplan working against Shevchenko, which is why the odds are so lopsided here.
Fight Breakdown: As the odds indicate, this fight should be a complete wipeout in Shevchenko’s favor. She is simply the better MMA fighter everywhere. The better striker, the better grappler, more finishing ability, better cardio, and a championship pedigree. I’m convinced that Shevchenko wins this fight, the only question that is left remaining is how does she get the job done? Murphy has never been finished, so a decision is possible in this case, but overall this feels like a fight that Shevchenko will finish. I’m leaning towards her utilizing her striking advantage and scoring the knockout in this fight, but a submission is certainly possible as well. Either way, Shevchenko wins. The high odds mean that adding her to a parlay doesn’t really do much, so if you are going to bet this fight, the suggested way would be to pick a prop and bet on that prop instead of the ML.
Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko
