Bet: OVER 4.5 Rounds (-105)
Cannonier began his MMA career at heavyweight but has since moved down two weight classes and is now showing his best work at 185 lbs. Despite coming up short to the uber-talented and former champion Robert Whittaker, Cannonier was riding a three-fight win streak over the likes of David Branch, Anderson Silva, and Jack Hermansson. Defeating all three of them inside the distance via (T)KO. I think Cannonier has a great size and frame for the middleweight division at 5 ft. 11 and 77 in. reach advantage. He likes to come forward mixing in leg kicks while throwing strikes here and there.
As for his opponent, Kelvin Gastelum cannot seem to get out of his own way with losses. Having just one win in five fights since 2019. To his credit he has losses to Robert Whittaker, Jack Hermansson, Darren Till, and current champion Israel Adesanya in a thrilling fight of the year from April of 2019 which began his losing streak. Still just 29 years old we have watched Gastelum grow up and nearly reach the top of the 185 lb. division. While I do not think he will defeat Adesanya anytime soon, Gastelum is still talented enough to compile wins and reach the number one contender status to run it back with The Last Stylebender. However it will take time and it starts with trying to get past Cannonier.
I think the over 4.5 total is the best bet for this fight. You have two good, durable fighters here and while a finish is not out of the realm of possibility (is it ever in MMA?)I think it is very unlikely here. Gastelum being the more durable of the two in my opinion, I do not think he will ever hurt Cannonier enough to pounce on him for a finish. Cannonier will most likely press the action and keep Gastelum on his backfoot while Gastelum looks for counters with his fast hand speed. Cannonier’s primary way to win rounds will be pressure, the jab, and a lot of leg kicks – basically out-voluming his opponent. If I had to choose I would probably ever-so-slightly favor Cannonier just because it is hard to trust Gastelum at the moment, but you cannot count him out as I think he is the better technical striker.
Thanks for reading and best of luck!
