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Event: UFC Vegas 20 (Feb. 27th)
Bet: 3 units @ +124 Montana De La Rosa to win versus Mayra Buena Silva
The implied odds I made for this bout are -233/65% Montana De La Rosa to win. Let’s discuss!
Quick thoughts on Montana De La Rosa:
She’s a fighter that’s stuck out to me that has made significant improvements on a fight-to-fight basis. Her MMA wrestling game used not to have good technique (i.e., pre-Andre Lee fight), but against Lee, she showcased MUCH better entries on her takedowns and set her takedown record in the UFC with 5. As we’ll get into, her striking also has gotten much better since moving to a new camp.
Striking: Favor Montana here.
Montana’s striking was much better against Viviane Araujo than she previously showed (i.e., improved technique, countering ability, and incorporation of feints). I favor her as a technical striker who has superior footwork (i.e., cuts different angles whereas Buena Silva is stationary/flat-footed). She also showcased excellent countering ability (i.e., check left hook), a willingness to switch stances (I think there’s a decent chance she does this extensively this upcoming fight), and throw various kicks (i.e., before the Araujo fight, she’d mainly pop the jab). I attribute this significant improvement because she is very young and moved to Elevation Fight Team (i.e., Dober, Sandhagen, Gaethje, Usman, Blaydes, etc., train there).
Mayra has hard low calf kicks (i.e., Viviane had success landing them on Montana), pressures, and throws hard, but as alluded to, she’s very hittable due to her plodding footwork and head movement.
Montana has gotten a bloody nose in past fights, which may help Buena Silva win on the feet, but I trust Montana to win the aggregate of the striking exchanges due to her superior technique, defense, and footwork.
Grappling: Favor Montana here.
No doubt Mayra has a threatening guard, but she is very content to play guard which has led to her getting controlled for stretches (i.e., against Moroz, Robertson, and Romero Borella). Montana is a BJJ Brown Belt and has shown her capability as a submission grappling with the scrambling ability (better scrambler in this matchup) to where I trust her to avoid a submission from Buena Silva.
Montana is the better wrestler. She’s utilized the body lock, and double leg takedowns, which I trust are good enough to get Buena Silva down (i.e., Buena Silva was taken down in the clinch by Moroz and Romero Borella, does not sprawl well). Once in the top position, Montana can pass to half-guard and land ground & pound (i.e., Buena Silva was controlled by Moroz in round 2 and took a lot of ground and pound from half-guard).
Montana has good instincts to initiate clinch exchanges that I like as I trust she can control Buena Silva and work for a takedown.
Overall, I like Buena Silva as a fighter (i.e., I bet her win ITD win against Romero Borella), but I believe De La Rosa should be favored here by approximately 65%.
TLDR:
I am betting on Montana De La Rosa because I see her as the better striker and grappler. I trust her toughness, technique, and defense to avoid any significant damage or submission.
