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(Editor’s note, this bet was originally given out January 27th. Make sure to check the free bets section of MMAOB to get the latest bets as soon as they’re posted)
Event: UFC Vegas 20 (Feb. 27th)
Bet: Risking 3 units @ -275 on Magomed Ankalaev to win versus Nikita Krylov
The implied odds I made for this bout are -400/80% Magomed Ankalaev to win. Let’s discuss why!
Quick Thoughts:
No doubt this is a step up in competition for Ankalaev, but it is warranted as he’s looked tremendous since making his UFC debut in the aggregate of his performances. I believe Ankalaev has a ton of potential and gets his best win to date against Nikita Krylov at a higher % chance than the odds currently indicate.
Striking:
Favor Ankalaev comfortably here. Ankalaev is the superior technical striker with more composure and far better defense (i.e., Krylov is often wild and very susceptible to counters, especially while closing distance). Ankalaev is a great counter striker who makes excellent reads in striking exchanges (i.e., when he knocked down Cutelaba both times in the second fight). Furthermore, he manages distance exceptionally well as he likes to fight methodically on the outside. Ankalaev can operate as a striker out of either the southpaw or orthodox stance but chooses to fight out of the opponent’s opposite stance. His combos are excellent, and he also possesses power with precision in his hands.
Krylov is durable and active on the feet, but his wild, come forward tendency likely means he runs into counters from Ankalaev and either get outpointed on the feet or stopped via strikes.
While striking, Krylov’s PTV is the be more active than Ankalaev on the outside by utilizing more kicks or earning a standing TKO/KO. However, I find these outcomes unlikely considering Ankalaevs range management, good defense, and proficient countering ability (i.e., Krylov often throws naked kicks).
Ankalaev likely wins the aggregate of the striking exchanges due to his superior technical advantages.
Grappling:
Favor Ankalaev here. Though he prefers to strike, I do see Ankalaev as the superior grappler here. Similar to his striking, Krylov is defensively liable in grappling exchanges (i.e., willing to pull guard, often gets his guard pass because he’ll hang on to the opposition’s head as they’re taking him down, was mounted by Johnny Walker, OSP in the 2nd fight). Additionally, Krylov’s scrambling ability from the bottom position can be much improved (i.e., was controlled by Jan in rounds 1 & 2). Krylov’s TDD is also a liability (i.e., was taken down a few times by OSP in round 1 of the 2nd fight, taken down by Teixeira and Jan).
Ankalaev is very accomplished in Combat Sambo. Additionally, he has a solid grappling game that he’s shown inside the octagon (i.e., double leg TD ability, good guard passer in the top position, solid top control pressure, and has good ground & pound that has led to stoppage wins).
Krylov can opportunistically get a guard SUB, but other than that, Ankalaev likely comfortably wins the grappling exchanges’ aggregate.
TLDR:
I bet Magomed Ankalaev to win versus Nikita Krylov because he is the superior technical fighter both in the striking department and grappling departments.
