MMAOB staff writer Adam Martin takes a deeper look at the main event of UFC 258, a five-round UFC welterweight title fight between champion Kamaru Usman and challenger Gilbert Burns. The event takes place on Saturday, February 13 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Kamaru Usman (-280)
Usman (17-1) is the UFC welterweight champion. The 33-year-old Nigerian is 12-0 overall in the UFC with wins over the likes of Colby Covington, Jorge Masvidal, Demian Maia, Tyron Woodley, Rafael dos Anjos, and Leon Edwards. Ever since winning TUF 21, Usman has been a dominant force inside the Octagon. His wrestling has been otherworldly at times as he’s routinely able to take his opponents down and control them on the mat. On the feet, he’s also improved by leaps and bounds as we saw when he knocked out Covington. Usman also has elite cardio and a great chin, and overall he just hasn’t shown many flaws in his game. It is worth point out that Usman’s only career loss back in 2013 came by submission and Burns is a BJJ black belt. But Usman is of course a far better fighter than he was back then. The oddsmakers have Usman as a big favorite here for the UFC 258 odds, and it’s hard to disagree with it considering his dominance in the Octagon.
Gilbert Burns (+240)
Burns (19-3) is the No. 2 contender in the UFC welterweight division. The 34-year-old Brazilian has been in the UFC since 2014 and has an overall record of 12-3 in the UFC. He’s been especially impressive at 170lbs, where he’s gone 5-0 overall in the UFC including a 4-0 mark in his most recent welterweight title run. Burns has defeated Tyron Woodley, Demian Maia, Gunnar Nelson, and Alexey Kunchenko and has overall looked fantastic in these fights. It appears that welterweight is truly the right weight class for him and he will get the chance to win the belt against Burns this weekend at UFC 258. With improved striking to go along with an incredible submission game and fantastic conditioning, Burns is a live dog to take home the UFC welterweight title this weekend.
Fight Breakdown: This is going to be a great fight and I’m not discounting Burns by any means, but I have to go with Usman to win. There are a few reasons why I’m siding with the champion. For one, I can’t ignore the five-inch reach advantage that he possesses (76″ to 71″). Usman is also 2″ taller and fights with a switch stance, which is a nice bonus. If the fight takes place on the feet, Usman is also, by the numbers, the busier and more accurate striker. I believe the fight will be close on the feet but that reach is something you can’t ignore. Two, the wrestling. Usman is a dominant wrestler capable of putting up big takedown numbers, and although Burns has shown stronger wrestling skills at 170lbs, he’s still just at 50% takedown defense for his career. Even if Burns can stop the shot, I still think Usman can push him up against the fence as he did to Masvidal. The third reason I like Usman is that he’s never lost in the UFC. He’s chasing Georges St. Pierre at this point for the title of the greatest welterweight of all time. At 12-0 in the UFC and at 17-1 for his MMA career, Usman has proven to be a winning fighter and I won’t go against him here. That being said, this is only a lean for me and not a play at this point as I don’t like the -280 odds here. Although I give enough edges to favor Usman in this fight for my pick, I would only favor him around a -200 margin, so at this point, he’s out of betting range. I don’t blame anyone for taking a shot on Burns at +240 as those are some juicy odds. I’ve been really impressed by Burns, too. But ultimately, I can’t go against the champ. I’m expecting a competitive fight with Usman winning a unanimous decision.
Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins (via decision)
