MMAOB staff writer Adam Martin takes a deeper look at the main event of UFC Vegas 18, a five-round heavyweight bout between top-10 ranked contenders Alexander Volkov and Alistair Overeem. The event takes place on Saturday, February 6 at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Alexander Volkov (-190)
Volkov (32-8) is the No. 6 ranked heavyweight in the UFC. The 32-year-old Russian is 6-2 overall in the UFC with wins over Greg Hardy, Fabricio Werdum, Stefan Struve, Roy Nelson, and Walt Harris. The former Bellator heavyweight champion is a finisher, with 24 of his 32 wins coming by stoppage. He also has excellent cardio and with his tall, long frame, he’s an awkward matchup for a lot of his opponents. The biggest holes in Volkov’s game as his takedown defense and his chin. He can be taken down and controlled, as we saw Curtis Blaydes do to him last year, and we also saw Derrick Lewis brutally KO him. Volkov is a solid fighter, but until he proves that he can beat someone of Overeem’s level, it feels strange to see him as the clear favorite here after opening as a dog.
Alistair Overeem (+165)
Overeem (47-18, 1 NC) is the No. 5 ranked heavyweight in the UFC. The 40-year-old Dutchman has been in the UFC for the past 10 years and has racked up an overall record of 12-7 while fighting at the highest levels of the sport. Some of his most notable wins include Fabricio Werdum, Mark Hunt, Roy Nelson, Junior dos Santos, and Brock Lesnar. Offensively, Overeem is an extremely dangerous fighter. He has 25 wins by knockout and 17 more by submission, making him a well-rounded fighter. His one big flaw is his chin, as Overeem has been knocked out 14 times in MMA, and that’s not even including his kickboxing fights. As we saw when Overeem fought Jairzinho Rozenstruik, he’s a highly-skilled fighter but one mistake can cost him the fight. Overall, Overeem is a better MMA fighter than Volkov, but the threat of the KO has swung this line the other way, and now he’s the dog.
Fight Breakdown: This should be a solid fight between two veteran heavyweights, and I think this could be a good spot for a bet. Despite Overeem opening as a slight -125 betting favorite, he’s now a +165 betting underdog, and I think those odds are too good to pass up on. Overeem is the more well-rounded fighter, he has the more powerful striking, he’s the better wrestler, and he’s appeared to be in top form as of late. Of course, Overeem’s chin is always the problem, as one big strike can KO him. But in general, Overeem has shown much better striking defense as of late, and I’m not convinced Volkov can put him out. After opening as a slight underdog, I’m not really sure why the odds have swung so drastically in Volkov’s favor. He’s a good fighter, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t really see him being on Overeem’s level. I see Overeem using his wrestling advantage in this fight and taking down Volkov where, eventually, I think Overeem unleashes ground-and-pound for a TKO.
Prediction: Alistair Overeem (via TKO)
