UFC 257: Dan Hooker vs Mike Chandler Bet by AJ’s Bets

The implied odds I made for this fight are -233/70% Dan Hooker to win.

I currently have a lot of free time, so I took a deeper dive into tape on some fights where I thought I might have a bet with another look. I love to invest in beneficial long-term things, and I feel good long term backing Dan Hooker in this spot at these close odds. Provenness and stylistically is why I like Hooker in this spot. Let’s discuss specifically why!

Favoring Hooker here comfortably. He holds a 4-inch arm reach advantage (i.e., per espn.com), can operate out of both stances, is varied (i.e., will kick high, low, and to the body with also the capability of utilizing his boxing to the body and head of the opposition), good lateral footwork, is crafty, has good range management, utilizes feints, and high, consistent striking volume.

Chandler is mainly a single-shot striker who loves to set up the right hand (i.e., which holds a tremendous amount of power), hard body kick, and hard low kick. Still, he isn’t very willing to throw in combination nor utilize a consistent jab as his striking is primarily based on athleticism and power. Chandler is also susceptible to low kicks (i.e., fight against Outlaw), which Hooker has persistently utilized in the past. Chandler will likely have to close distance on Hooker to land a big shot and hurt Hooker to win on the feet (i.e., Hooker can improve his head movement and keep his hands higher once the opposition is on the inside); otherwise, the aggregate of the striking will comfortable go in Hooker’s favor.

Also, Hooker has a legit chance to finish this fight via TKO/KO. Chandler has been finished via strikes a couple of times (i.e., against Patricio Pitbull and Will Brooks) and rocked in fights that didn’t finish (i.e., second fight against Brent Primus). Hooker is a very talented striker and does possess power with precision (i.e., 7 knockdowns in the UFC, hurt durable fighters such as Iaquinta). Hence, a TKO/KO finish from Hooker is in play though I prefer to play his money line to cover the decision and finish outcomes should he win.

Of course, Chandler can finish Hooker too with his big power, but the overall durability and effectiveness in the striking favor Hooker.

This required a bit of guesswork, but I lean Hooker’s defensive grappling is likely good enough to avoid any significant time in the bottom position and not get finished. Hooker is a proficient scrambler, has good overall TDD, and is a solid, opportunistic grappler overall (i.e., had a serious sub attempt against Gilbert Burns, Clinch tie-up ability, and transition to back).

Chandler is the best wrestler he’s faced in the UFC, but Chandler’s high energy and explosiveness tends to fatigue him as his fights progress (i.e., will throw his strikes with extreme force, go for suplexes, and slam takedowns). I can see Chandler landing a couple of takedowns or more, but I think Hooker will make him work for the takedowns and scramble back up well, thus taxing Chandler’s cardio.

Hooker is the current #6 LW in the UFC right now, showing he can compete with the weight class’s best fighters. At the same time, Chandler has been doing well, but in Bellator, where the opposition level is not nearly as high as in the UFC.

I am betting Hooker here because I trust his defensive grappling to keep the fight standing most of the time, where he likely wins the aggregate of the striking exchanges. Hooker is also the far more proven fighter in the UFC.