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Event: UFC Fight Island 7 (Jan. 16th)
Bet: 2.5 units @ +120 on Brown vs. Condit UNDER 2.5 Rounds
Statistically speaking, their combined UFC fights hit the UNDER 2.5 round mark at a rate of 62.79%, whereas the +120 odds imply a rate of 45.5%.
Stylistically, Brown is susceptible to body shots (i.e., was hurt by them against Sanchez and Ellenberger) and has been knocked down six times in his past six fights. Condit is a threatening combination striker who will often work the body, so a TKO/KO finish via body shots or head strikes can happen. The finish in the standup can also happen from Brown as Brown is still dangerous on the feet (i.e., nine knockdowns in the UFC, hurt Baeza bad last fight) and clinch (i.e., hard elbows).
The grappling dynamic is interesting because while Condit has a threatening guard, his overall grappling game (i.e., BJJ Brown Belt) has not seemingly adapted to modern MMA grappling, resulting in him getting submitted by fighters in three of his past four losses (i.e., to Chiesa, Alex Oliveira, and Maia). Brown has a threatening guard and is a capable submission grappler (i.e., BJJ Brown Belt), so a sub from Brown seems to live here. Also, Brown has shown to be susceptible to the submission in the past as well (i.e., ten pro losses via submission), so if Condit has an opportunity to get an advantageous position presented to him, he can earn a submission (i.e., Condit took Oliveira’s back in round 1 and threatened from his guard against Chiesa).
All in all, I like this bet statistically and stylistically as there are many ways this fight can finish at a valuable rate.
