MMAOB staff writer Adam Martin takes a deeper look at the co-main event of UFC 256, a three-round lightweight bout between top contenders Tony Ferguson and Charles Oliveira. The event takes place on Saturday, December 12 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Tony Ferguson (-170)
Figueiredo (25-4) is the No. 3 ranked lightweight in the UFC. The 36-year-old American has been on the UFC roster since 2011 and he has been one of the top 155lbers in the sport during that stretch. Overall, Ferguson holds an incredible 15-2 record in the UFC, with wins over the likes of Anthony Pettis, Donald Cerrone, Kevin Lee, Edson Barboza, and Rafael dos Anjos, with his lone two defeats in the Octagon to Justin Gaethje and Michael Johnson. Ferguson is one of the most well-rounded, violent, and dangerous lightweights the sport of MMA has ever seen. On the feet he has a high-volume striking attack with finishing power, he has a wrestling background, and his ground game is slick, too. Overall, he’s just a great fighter, and though he’s coming off of a devastating TKO loss to Gaethje, the oddsmakers and betting public are giving him the respect of being the favorite here.
Charles Oliveira (+150)
Oliveira (29-8, 1 NC) is the No. 7 ranked lightweight in the UFC. The 31-year-old Brazilian is 17-8, 1 NC overall in the UFC and he is currently riding a seven-fight win streak. “Do Bronx” notably holds the UFC record for most submission victories with 14. Oliveira has actually been in the UFC longer than Ferguson has as he joined the promotion in 2010, but up until recently, he has struggled to build up a long win streak. He has had some spectacular victories over the years over the likes of Kevin Lee, Will Brooks, and Hatsu Hioki, but he’s also suffered eight losses in the UFC with seven of those losses coming by stoppage. Oliveira has improved in all areas of the game and is certainly a live dog in this spot, but considering some of the losses he’s had over the years, it’s no surprise Ferguson is favored in this fight. It will be really interesting to see how this matchup plays out.
Fight Breakdown: Although Oliveira has looked great the last few years and Ferguson is coming off of a lopsided loss, I still like “El Cucuy” to get his hand raised in this fight. I just feel like Ferguson is going to have the edge in the striking and wrestling in this fight, and as good as Oliveira is on the ground, Ferguson is no slouch on the mat himself. I see Ferguson utilizing his length and reach to outstrike Oliveira from distance before eventually hurting him with strikes. If the fight goes to the ground, I also see Ferguson being the one in the top position on the mat and potentially finishing this fight with ground and pound. I’m not completely writing off Oliveira here because he has looked much sharper on the feet lately and we know he has amazing submissions, but his striking defense and chin historically haven’t held up to strikers like Ferguson. Give me Ferguson to win via TKO.
Prediction: Tony Ferguson (via TKO)
