We’re moving away from Fight Island and back in the ‘Fight Capital of the World’ for UFC Vegas 5: Brunson vs Shahbazyan. If this is the first time you’re reading this piece, I go through 3 fights on the upcoming UFC card that you should stay away from a betting perspective and the reasoning why.
**NOTE: The perspective being given in this article is from where current odds sit at the time writing. Also, my analysis in regards to passing on these fights is from a straight/total perspective. If you’re looking for sneaky props, check out some of the other content on MMA Oddsbreaker.
Chris Gutierrez (-350) vs Cody Durden (+290)
In this bout, Cody Durden is making his UFC debut and is stepping on short-notice to replace Luke Sanders.
This is a fight that might be flying under the radar from an entertainment perspective but one I want no action on. Off the top, I don’t fancy betting on these super short-notice fighters, given the current climate of the world right now as there are always potential training questions. In turn, Durden is getting by far his toughest test to date in Gutierrez. I’m assuming he’ll come out hard and try to wrestle early. How much success he has there, I don’t think much. But I do think Durden can make this a scrappy fight in those earlier rounds but I see the vet, Gutierrez, being able to take over the fight in the latter rounds.
Gutierrez currently sits –350 which is way too steep of a price to pay in this spot. The pressure of Durden could also make this fight play closer than odds indicate if Gutierrez can’t keep distance. Durden’s tape is somewhat limited and his strength of competition hasn’t been particularly high as well so any bet on Durden just seems like a bit of a “dart-throw” to me. I’d look down the card for another spot.
Markus Perez (-200) vs Eric Spicely (+170)
Markus Perez has been somewhat up and down in his UFC career and Eric Spicely is looking to make good on his second UFC run.
From a stylistic perspective, this is just a really weird fight with a lot of question marks to me. For Perez to have success, he’s going to have fight at range, get off on his kicks, time his straight shots in, get out and keep his back off the fence. Conversely, Spicely need to fight in a phone booth, close the distance, make it a gritty fight and look to land TDs. I’m not convinced he’ll be able to do that here as I think Perez will be able to play the range game and avoid the ground.
I don’t like a bet here because Perez isn’t really the type of fighter I want to bet at chalk, given his style. He’s pretty passive, not high volume, hittable and doesn’t have the best wrestling to complement his submission game. Then in Spicely, he’s somewhat one-dimensional who definitely has some durability questions. Backing Perez at –200 could be a big sweat and taking the shot on Spicely at these odds seems like a shot in the dark as I haven’t seen many strides from Spicely in recent years. Save your money here guys!
Lando Vannata (-145) vs Bobby Green (+125)
This one should produce some fireworks and definitely has ‘Fight of the Night’ potential.
The fights a rematch from a few years ago where both guys went back and forth to a draw. Lando had a lot of early success in the fight hurting Green twice but did get a point deducted for the illegal knee which is ultimately what led to the draw and not a W for Lando. However, Green had a lot of success in the boxing as well and began to turn the tides late.
I think the line on Lando is a bit high right now but I definitely agree with him being favored here as he had the bigger moments in the first contest. However, with how hittable he is and the boxing prowess of Bobby, I don’t think you can necessarily assume the fight’s going to go exactly how it did the first time. Ultimately, it’s a super close fight so I can’t advocate for a bet on Lando at chalk. I also can’t advocate for a bet on Green here as he tends to make fights closer than they should be and the dog number isn’t big enough given the stylistic considerations of the fight. I would look elsewhere on this card.
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