This is the inaugural edition of Three Not for Me: The Fights You Should Pass On. The title is pretty self-explanatory but I wanted to give you all a different perspective. Often, people are suggesting who you should bet; here, I’m telling you not only who you shouldn’t, but which fights as a whole you should pass on. I’ll be doing this for every card in hopes of steering you away from certain volatile matchups that lack value.
Also to note, the perspective being given is from where current odds sit as when this article was written – early fight week.
Alright, let’s jump in!
Jordan Griffin vs Darrick Minner
This is a super intriguing fight to pass on as many may disagree with me; given opening odds and how the first matchup played between the two. Yes, that’s right – these two squared off in LFA back in 2018. The fight was largely one-sided with Minner handily controlling the fight. However, he made a tactical error leaving his arm exposed as both of their legs we’re tied up in a calf-slicer position – Griffin wins via arm bar.
Minner is submission over position guy who will take a lot of chances. It’s been one of his best attributes and also the reason for a lot of his losses. Griffin is largely losing fights until the ‘hail mary’ sub or he gets grinded out. They’re finish or bust kind of fighters which are historically not one’s you want to look to play straight.
In this iteration, one sportsbook opened Griffin –500 which was an astronomical mistake as a ton of money flooded in on Minner and rightfully so. But, as the odds currently sit, Griffin is now down to –175. That lines a bit high on Griffin but right around where it should be in my opinion. Ultimately, neither guy has won a fight on the cards in 5 years. You can’t lay chalk on Griffin and the value on Minner (straight) has completely diminished.
My advice, save your money on this one!
Ryan Benoit vs Tyson Nam
This fight could produce a lot of fireworks or be a bathroom break. Benoit has been largely inactive throughout his UFC career being plagued by the injury bug. His counterpart in Nam, is an older Flyweight at 36, who’s gotten two tough matchups since entering the UFC in Sergio Pettis and Kai Kara-France. Despite the wrestling background and BJJ Purple Belt of Benoit, we should largely see a striking affair here. To boot, both guys are hittable and are relatively low-volume for the Flyweight division.
This is the definition of a 50/50 fight to me as Benoit’s been very inconsistent and Nam just doesn’t seem to know when to step on the gas.
Current odds sit right around a pick em’ as of now with a slight lean-to Benoit. To confidently back either guy in this spot, I would need a 10% edge which is nowhere to found.
Don’t bet this fight, go take the wife or girlfriend out to dinner!
Julia Avila vs Gina Mazany
“Danger” Mazany is back, taking this one on short notice as Avila’s previous opponent Melissa Gatto fell out last week. Mazany went 1-3 in her first UFC stint but faced some tough girls to boot. Avila made her debut last summer at UFC 239 with a UD win over Pannie Kianzad.
This is one of those fights where I think the “levels to the game” will show. Don’t get me wrong, Avila is still very green and can be very reckless on the feet but she does possess power which we don’t always see in the division. To boot, Mazany doesn’t exercise any head-movement and will be there to be hit all day. Her only real PTV is to grind Avila against the cage for three rounds but I just don’t see it. Mazany proved she’s not UFC caliber and the ceiling of Avila is still unknown.
Avila currently sits –485 which is too high. First, you can’t play her straight and don’t make the “square” mistake of putting her in a parlay – not a good long-term strategy. But also, this is one of those situations where just because the favorite is too chalked up, it doesn’t mean you should be on the dog. It’s not just about “value” — it’s about “how much value” and there isn’t enough here. At the end of the day, this a low-moderate level WMMA fight, there always a high potential for variance.
Don’t bet this fight, get you some Guac on that bowl at Chipotle next time!
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