Big Marley’s UFC on ESPN+9 Breakdown
If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
|Significant Strikes||+0.5 Pts|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Canada. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of money from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Macy Chiasson – $9,400
Macy Chiasson is by far the safest play on the board this week and she also has 100+ point upside. She is a lock in my cash games this week and I don’t really see how she loses. I think a submission would be Moras’ best chance but she isn’t very capable of getting the fight to the ground, so I see her getting dominated on the feet until the ref steps in. She is by far my favorite play in the $9k range and she is a -750 on the betting line. I like playing it safer in cash games and I think she is a safe win this week.
GPP play of the week – Greg Hardy- $8,600
This is an easy one for me this week and he will be the chalk of the week. I will still be overweight on Merab though. His style is exactly what we want on DraftKings. He has a nonstop pace and he shoots for takedowns very often. He has 22 landed takedowns in his first 3 UFC fights and that is his best path to victory in this matchup as well. Even with 2 losses on his record out of those 3 fights, he still averages more DK points than Katona does with his 2-0 UFC record. This isn’t my GPP play of the week because I know he is going to win, I just know IF he wins that he will score highly, and he should easily reach value on an $8.6k price tag.
Underdog play of the week – Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone – $7,800
I have to pick Cowboy as the dog of the week. His fights are always action packed and the winner of this fight will surely be on the first-place lineup. Especially if it is Cowboy. He almost always scores over 100 points in his wins and he has 5-rounds to work with here. I don’t see a situation where he wins and doesn’t end up on the $25k lineup. I will be overweight on Cowboy this week, but this is an all-in fight for me. If Cowboy isn’t in a one of my lineups, then you will see Iaquinta there. I will be heavier on the Cowboy side though and I think he gets the job done by submission.
Fade of the week – Elias Theodorou ($8,000)
I would be very surprised to see Theodorou on the 1st place lineup this week. I would be surprised to see him get even 10x his $8k price tag and that is why I will have zero lineups with him this week. Not counting his fight with Dan Kelly, his 4 wins before that scored 76, 69, 64, and 49. His style is just not good for DraftKings. He is going to need to knock Brunson out if he is going to score highly and he isn’t a power puncher. I think you are better off taking Elias by TKO on the betting line at +870. I don’t see any reason to invest in him this week in GPPs because he doesn’t have the ceiling we want to win that big $25k. I think he is fine in cash games because a 65-point win wouldn’t kill us there. But he is an easy fade of the week for me this Saturday.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 71-45 for +233.79u (+$23,379) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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