Big Marley’s UFC on ESPN+ 6 Breakdown
If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
|Significant Strikes||+0.5 Pts|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in London on ESPN+. DraftKings has some solid contests considering this is a free card and I look forward to chasing the GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I won my first seat into it a couple weeks ago and I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Chris Gutierrez- $8,300
This is by far the biggest odds value of the card. Gutierrez is a bigger favorite than Luis Pena but he is $900 cheaper. That makes him a lock for my cash lineup and if you want to fade him then do it in GPPs. This value will make him very chalky in GPPs and if he loses then it can kill off ~40% of the field. We can take that loss in cash games too because most people will have them in their cash lineups as well, so it should be a wash there. I do think he gets his hand raised on Saturday, but this line value is what is making him the cash lock for me.
GPP play of the week – Curtis Blaydes – $9,000
Curtis Blaydes is the big boom/bust play of the week and that is why I love him for GPPs. He has the highest ceiling on the card with his wrestling ability and GNP and he has 3 fighters priced above him. The worry here is that he is coming off knockout loss only 4-months ago and now he could get knocked out again. That is what makes him a GPP play instead of a cash play. I don’t care about his floor in GPPs because any loss will kill my chances at $25k so it really doesn’t matter if I got a zero from him. However, the ceiling is what I am going after and that is why he is the GPP play of the week.
Underdog play of the week – Frankie Saenz – $7,800
I like Saenz here because he should be the one getting takedowns and I think he has a good chance at getting over 10x with a win. I don’t feel real confident in him winning, so I won’t have a ton of exposure to him, but he is one of my favorite underdog picks to get a win on a week where I am picking mostly favorites to win. I think he is playable in all formats and I will likely be overweight to him in GPPs. I think Vera has the better chance at finishing the fight so if you want to put him in some GPP lineups I think that is fine. But for me, Saenz is the guy I will have more exposure to and I think he gets his hand raised this weekend.
Fade of the week – Alexis Davis ($8,600)
At $8.6k it is going to be hard for Davis to pay off her salary. She only has one win with over 86 DK points and I don’t think this is a match she can just dominate to score 90-100. I think she does win this fight, but she probably scores around ~65-points and at her salary that score isn’t going to cut it. There are too many good plays between $8.2k – $9k where we don’t need to invest in Davis hoping that she can have her best ever DK scoring night. I will have a full fade on Davis this week and I would need over 100 lineups before I thought about adding her to my player pool.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 63-40 for +219.88 (+$21,988) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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