As per usual, Mike’s MMA Picks slayed it again this past weekend for UFC London, going 7-2 on his bets for a hefty 7.2 unit profit.
Mike adds more bets as the fights get closer, so his subscribers get more value due to line movement compared to single event package purchasers. He gave out a bet on Jack Shore at +100 (he closed as a -140 favorite).
Mike absolutely drilled the props for UFC London as well, going 6 out of 7 with the props he gave out for the card.
For anyone interested in taking a shot on Mike’s bets, he currently has his first bet posted for Saturday’s UFC Columbus event. Click here to buy Saturday’s UFC Columbus package or to subscribe to a month (or two) full of Mike’s plays (which also include early bets on future events).
Here’s what his subscribers saw before fight night this past weekend:
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Mike’s Bets for UFC London
Risking 2U on Arnold Allen at -158.
Add-on on 0.5u to Arnold Allen at +110
Arnold Allen has a habit of winning. He’s well-rounded and has the luxury of this bout vs Dan Hooker taking place at featherweight right in his backyard at UFC London. Hooker is there to be tagged in exchanges, and I believe that is what we’ll see from the opening bell. I rate Hooker’s heart very high, and believe he’ll do his best, but it just won’t be enough vs a polished fighter in Allen, who is getting better every time out. I believe this stays on the feet, and Allen walks away with a win. We locked Allen in at -158
Risking 1.5U on the Aspinall-Volkov Fight doesn’t go the distance prop -187.
Add-on 0.5U on Aspinall-Volkov fight doesn’t go the distance at -175.
Let me start by stating that Tom Aspinall has yet to experience a 3rd round in his professional mixed martial arts career that dates back to 2014. This is in part due to his own dominance. I expect Aspinall to try to work his way inside of Alexander Volkov’s massive frame early and land with power. If he can’t get the enormous Russian out of there, things may get ugly vs a volume machine in Alexander Volkov, who is a legitimate veteran of the sport. There are lots of question marks regarding Aspinall’s gas tank if this hits round 4 or 5. On the other side of the fight I have concerns for Volkov if this bout ends up hitting the mat, as Aspinall should have a huge grappling advantage. Do not be surprised to see Aspinall lock up a submission in this spot or fade late if he can’t get the takedown. I believe we are getting some value in fight doesn’t go the distance at -175 at heavyweight.
Risking 1.5U on the Ilia Topuria wins inside the distance prop at -175.
Ilia Topuria is a smashing machine. His grappling should be a huge difference maker in this spot vs an English knockout artist in Jai Herbert, who will be looking to keep the fight on the feet at all costs. Topuria is taking this fight up a division at lightweight with a lot to prove after bouts vs Evloev and Jourdain fell through. I’m expecting this one to be fireworks for as long as it lasts. Herbert can crack on the feet, so Topuria will likely look for a quick takedown and either submission or ground and pound. We got in on Topuria inside the distance at -175, which I believe is a much better spot than his -450 moneyline.
Risking 1.5U on the Gunnar Nelson wins inside the distance prop at -137.
It has been almost 3 years since Gunnar Nelson last competed inside of the Octagon. A number of rib injuries and the Covid pandemic have kept him on the shelf. When he competes, Nelson is a very slick grappler who looks for opportunistic submissions. He has a short-notice replacement opponent in Takashi Sato, who can land power punches, though does not possess UFC caliber submission defense when taken down. I expect Nelson to get back on track here in what will likely be a submission victory. Rather than play the -450 moneyline, we got in on Nelson to win inside the distance at -137.
Risking 1.5U on the Paddy Pimblett wins inside the distance prop at -150.
Paddy Pimblett will likely have the 02 Arena on its feet when the UFC returns to London. Pimblett’s furious pace and reckless fighting style should cause a 36 year-old Rodrigo Vargas fits, as the Mexican fighter typically needs space to be successful. This is another spot where we are locking up a fighter at a solid inside the distance number when they have a massive moneyline. Look for Pimblett to get takedowns and earn a TKO finish down the stretch in this matchup, as he has a lot to
prove in front of a raucous home crowd.
Risking 1U on Jack Shore at +100.
Jack Shore, 15-0, 27yo, takes on Timur Valiev, 18-2, 32yo, in a bantamweight scrap at UFC London. Both of these fighters are winners who will fight hard for your money. It has been a privilege to watch as Jack Shore continues to level up fight to fight, and I believe his tenacity will be a difference maker against a worthy opponent in front of the London crowd. Valiev comes out of the gates strong and possesses a wide variety of attacks training out of a solid camp. What we’ve also seen though, is that Timur Valiev is prone to making minor mistakes that have hurt him massively throughout his UFC career. The record doesn’t tell the whole story. Although he may be outgunned on the feet, I believe Jack Shore’s wrestling, pace, and relentless pursuit of a victory will eventually cause Valiev fits the deeper this fight goes. We got in at dog odds on this play. Give me Jack Shore for the upset.
Risking 1.5U on a parlay of Topuria-Herbert fight doesn’t go the distance/Krylov-Craig fight doesn’t go the distance at -114.
Ilia Topuria is the real deal and has multiple paths to victory vs a long opponent who can crack, in Jai Herbert. Herbert has shown durability issues with his chin and a lack of a ground game on the mat. I’m inclined to believe we see Ilia Topuria come out of the gate guns blazing to make a statement in this spot. There is the potential for Topuria to gas himself out if he can’t find the finish, and Herbert has been known to land a vicious strike or two. We’ll likely be witness to a savage finish by Topuria. Give me fight doesn’t go the distance as part of a parlay with Krylov=Craig Fight Doesn’t Go The Distance. Paul Craig has been a man on fire recently with notable wins over an aged Shogun Rua and Jamahal Hill. A dangerous guard player, Paul Craig is capable of locking up a submission at any point in a fight. He takes on Nikita Krylov, who has traditionally been a finisher by nature. Only 3 of Krylov’s 35 pro fights have hit the scorecards. Paul Craig has only been to the scorecards once in his entire career. Both fighters are extremely dangerous, and although I lean to a Krylov KO, I am playing fight doesn’t go the distance.
Risking 0.5U on a parlay of Cory McKenna/Topuria-Herbert fight doesn’t go the distance at -136.
Cory McKenna appears to be a promising young fighter out of Team Alpha Male. Her controversial victory over Kay Hansen showed us that she’s capable of executing an excellent gameplan. Expect much of the same vs Elise Reed, who lacks much of a wrestling and ground game. McKenna’s relentless pressure and takedowns will likely wear down Reed the longer this goes. If Reed is able to get off on her strikes, she could potentially cause McKenna some issues, as this is relatively low-level women’s mma all things considered. I’m expecting the crowd to be a factor in this bout, and McKenna to walk away with the victory. We have McKenna parlayed up with Topuria-Herbert Fight Doesn’t Go The Distance. lia Topuria is the real deal and has multiple paths to victory vs a long opponent who can crack, in Jai Herbert. Herbert has shown durability issues with his chin and a lack of a ground game on the mat. I’m inclined to believe we see Ilia Topuria come out of the gate guns blazing to make a statement in this spot. There is the potential for Topuria to gas himself out if he can’t find the finish, and Herbert has been known to land a vicious strike or two. We’ll likely be witness to a savage finish by Topuria.
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Risking 0.5 U on the Makwan Amirkhani to win inside the distance prop at +425.
Although both Mike Grundy and Makwan Amirkhani have fallen on tough times, they are both grapplers at heart. I expect both fighters to implement their game early and put the pedal to the metal. Considering Makwan Amirkhani’s main path to victory is a submission and is cextremely explosive early, there is some value on his inside the distance line at +425. He has 12 finish victories to his credit, and I would not be surprised to see Mr. Finland lock something up under the bright lights.
