As per usual, Mike’s MMA Picks slayed it again this past weekend for UFC 272, going 4-1 on his bets for a tidy 2.92 unit profit.
Mike adds more bets as the fights get closer, so his subscribers get more value due to line movement compared to single event package purchasers. His first bet on Colby Covington was given out at -230 (he closed as a -335 favorite).
The same goes for Kevin Holland. Mike gave him out at -225 and he closed as a -490 betting favorite.
For anyone interested in taking a shot on Mike’s bets, he currently has four plays available for Saturday’s UFC Vegas 50 and Bellator 276 events. Click here to buy a combo-event package or to subscribe to a month full of Mike’s plays (which also include early bets on future events).
Here’s what his subscribers saw before fight night:
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Mike’s Bet No. 1 for UFC 272
Risking 2U on Colby Covington at -230.
We’ve got a grudge match on our hands with Jorge Masvidal vs Colby Covington. Covington’s relentless pressure should be a difference maker early and often in this spot. Look for Masvidal to attempt to replicate the Ben Askren knee or come on late after surviving a thrashing from Colby Covington. The likely outcome here is Colby Covington drowning Jorge Masvidal, and we got in at -230. At 37 years of age, I don’t believe Masvidal has the grappling chops to hang with Covington. Sure, Masvidal may land something huge that stuns and folds Covington, though that is not a likely outcome. Give me Covington for the win. We’ll keep an eye on odds throughout the coming months.
Mike’s Bet No. 2 for UFC 272
Risking 2U on Kevin Holland at -225
Kevin Holland takes on Alex Oliveira at UFC 272 in a welterweight bout. Both of these fighters are looking to right the ship and will likely be very hungry. Holland’s boxing and defensive striking prowess should be on full display early. Look for Oliveira to try to get this fight to the mat at all costs, as he has a tendency to gas out in many fights when meeting adversity. There is a high likelihood we see Alex Oliveira look for a way out late in this bout. He has a lot of wear and tear on the body at this stage in his career, and I believe the young gun will come out on top. The play is Kevin Holland, and I’m getting in at -225.
Mike’s Bet No. 3 for UFC 272
Risking 1.5U on Bryce Mitchell at -150
Bryce Mitchell, 14-0, 27yo, takes on Edson Barboza, 22-10, 36yo, in a featherweight bout at UFC 272. This fight likely goes two ways… Either Bryce Mitchell wins via his grappling, or Edson Barboza gets the job done via his striking. If Mitchell comes out of the gate on a mission to get this fight to the mat, even in the larger Octagon, I believe he eventually gets it there. His ability to slow cook opponents through wrestling and BJJ is a real treat to watch. At only 27 years of age, he has some high fight IQ, and will stick to a trusted game plan. Things may get sketchy early, as Barboza has a wide variety of striking attacks capable of ending the fight. Mitchell will need to tax the gas tank of the aging Brazilian, who often looks like a fish out of water when taken out of his comfort zone and neutralized off his back. The pick is Bryce Mitchell at -150.
Mike’s Bets No. 4 & 5 for UFC 272
Risking 1.5U on Rafael Dos Anjos at -160.
Risking 1U on the Dos Anjos-Moicano fight doesn’t go the distance prop at -125.
Rafael Dos Anjos, 30-13, 37yo, has fought a murderer’s row at both lightweight and welterweight. He was recently training for Rafael Fiziev, and in comes extreme short notice replacement, Renato Moicano, 16-4-1, 32yo, three weeks removed from a win over Alexander Hernandez to save the card. This bout takes place at a catchweight of 160lbs and is scheduled for 5-rounds. I’m expecting Moicano to have a limited gas tank here vs the southpaw, Dos Anjos. To take things a step further, Moicano’s last 7 fights have yet to see a 3rd round. If RDA can extend Moicano through his high
pressure fighting style, it will likely cause Moicano to go for broke. There is a chance Moicano’s length and quickness cause RDA fits, though I have to side w/ RDA as the more well-prepared, versatile fighter in this matchup. The play is RDA at -160. The other play is fight doesn’t go the distance at -125.
