Big Marley’s UFC 235 Breakdown
If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
|Significant Strikes||+0.5 Pts|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of money from this week and I can’t wait to chase those big prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $50k goes to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only tournament for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I won my first seat into it last week and will try to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at that $50k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Qualifier. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Jon Jones – $9,600
Jones is a lock for my cash game lineup this week at his -800 betting line. I will take that free square and move on. He should dominate this fight and he can finish it on the feet or the ground. I expect him to score more than 100-points and I am totally fine with paying $9.6k for that. When I am making lineups, I want to try to get at least 10x from every fighter. With Jones being 9.6k, I want at least 96 points from him. That is how I look at it. If this was a 3-round fight and I didn’t think Jones would get a finish then maybe he only scores 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I wouldn’t want that. However, this is a possible 5-round fight, and I do expect Jones to dominate, so that price tag is fine with me. For GPPs, I think you can get away from Jon Jones because he will be very highly owned. If he is 50% owned by the field and he only scores 85-90 DK points, then that will pretty much kill off half the field since that wouldn’t be enough points to put him on that $50k lineup.
GPP play of the week – Ben Askren – $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this fight it will be from his wrestling. He is one of the best wrestlers in MMA history and now he is finally getting a chance in the UFC after dominating every organization he has been in. He will not want to strike for long against Robbie Lawler, so I expect him to shoot for takedowns right away and chain wrestle until he gets them. Once he gets top control there isn’t going to be a lot Robbie can do on the ground and he should take a beating as long as it is on the mat. On DraftKings, every takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points for a significant strike. A guy like Askren can go out there and get 10 takedowns in 15-minutes and that is what makes him a great play if he can come up with the victory.
Underdog play of the week – Diego Sanchez – $7,100
This is not the Diego Sanchez of old, but I think he still has what it takes to beat Mickey Gall. On the feet, the volume alone from Sanchez should win it for him there as long as he doesn’t get knocked out. The chin of Diego is what I worry about most these days, but Gall is not much of a striker and I don’t see him getting knockout. I also don’t know that Gall can get takedowns, and I think Sanchez would be the more likely guy to be on top if the fight hits the ground. A submission is Gall’s best chance at a win here and Sanchez has never been submitted. We have to have underdogs in our DK lineups and at $7.1k Diego allows us to pay up for those guys like Jon Jones or Ben Askren. If he can grind out a decision win here I think he can get 10x that salary and if we can get a win from him at that cheap salary, then I think we will be in line for that $50k win if we hit our other 5 spots.
Fade of the week – Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might end up using every fighter since I am making so many lineups this week, but Anthony Smith is the guy I want the least of. I try to get a favorite for you guys as my fade of the week but I don’t think there are any must fade favorites this week. Instead, I am going with the 1 fighter I don’t think stands a chance. I think a fluke KO is the only path to victory for Smith and he really doesn’t possess the one punch/kick power that it would take to pull that off. I would be shocked if Smith pulled off the upset this week and if I was making 20 or less lineups, he would be an easy fade.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 58-37 for +177.62u (+$17,762) since May 19th on Premium Plays)