UFC 202 Date: August 20, 2016 Arena: T-Mobile Arena City: Las Vegas, NV Welterweight bout: Neil Magny (-140) vs Lorenz Larkin (+120) Fight Breakdown: The featured bout for the UFC 202 Fight Pass prelims will be a welterweight contest between TUF 16 veteran Neil Magny and former Strikeforce middleweight champion Lorenz “The Monsoon” Larkin, with Magny being a slight betting favorite to win at -140 ($140 to win $100) and Larkin being a small underdog at +120 ($100 to win $120) at Several Bookmakerss. Neil Magny(18-4 MMA, 11-3 UFC) last saw action at UFC Fight Night 85 five months ago, where he survived a very rough first round to come back and earn a third round TKO victory over the former Bellator middleweight champion. The win puts him at three in a row inside the Octagon and makes him 10-1 in his last 11, with the lone blemish being a second round rear naked choke submission loss to Demian Maia. Following the defeat, he took Maia’s seminar and began training with the veteran Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace. The ground game has been Magny’s weakness, but he has been making improvements in the department. He generally seems to only get outclassed by elite black belts a la Maia, while himself getting the better of most fighters on the canvas. The 29-year-old works solid takedowns and is quite effective from top position; both with his ground and pound and submissions. TUF 16 veteran moves well on the feet, possessing good footwork and doing a good job of putting the pressure on his opponents. His hands are accurate and he works a clean jab, often prefering to double up on it. Magny trains out of Grudge Training Center and Team Elevation in Denver, CO and possesses tremendous cardio; he will certainly have enough gas in the tank for a full three rounds of action against Larkin, should this welterweight scrap hit the judges’ scorecards for a decision. Lorenz “The Monsoon” Larkin (25-4 MMA, 9-3 UFC) is coming off a split decision win over Jorge Masvidal at UFC Fight Night 88 just a couple of months ago, and he makes a quick return to action to replace an injured “Stun Gun” Dong Hyun Kim in this welterweight match-up against Magny, where he will be looking to make it two wins in a row for himself. Larkin is a talented striker who possesses solid striking defense, as he utilizes good head movement, excellent footwork and has nice counters. He has great balance and solid takedown defense, but when taken down, he is very active off his back. He moves around the cage really well and comes at his opponents from different angles. The Strikeforce veteran is fast and does a good job of changing speeds. He has solid kickboxing and boxing skills; it’s worth noting that he went 5-0 as an amateur boxer. The uppercut is one of Larkin’s favorite punches, and he uses it well. He even has a great lead uppercut, not to mention a heavy overhand right and a solid left hook. “The Monsoon” also has some nice flying attacks, including a flying knee and a flying roundhouse kick. He can be flashy with his style, but he is also very effective. He employs a spinning attack, as well, with which he often finds success. The former light heavyweight likes to use his jab, even his lead jab. He does damage with nearly every strike he connects with. Larkin has an excellent kicking game. He delivers beautiful, heavy kicks, and likes going to the head and body with them. He also works the inside and outside legs of his opponents really well, as he likes to mix it up and slow them down. The native of Riverside, CA works the Thai plum clinch well, and uses the position to put his knees and elbows to work. He puts great, effective combinations together, and while Larkin does not have excellent top control, he does employ a solid ground and pound attack, in which he does damage with heavy, vicious elbows. Larkin is a well-conditioned athlete who will be prepared for a full three rounds of battle, should this scrap see it’s way to the judges’ scorecards for a decision. Gabe’s Call: Larkin by T/KO (punches, 1:22 round 1) Gabe’s Thoughts: I believe Larkin is the superior striker heading into this contest and I see him finding success in keeping the fight there. Magny has a history of getting hurt in the first round only to survive and come back to win the fight. I think if Larkin hurts him early, he will capitalize and put him away. However, if he fails to find the finish, I think he has the cardio to continue to get the better of Magny en route to a decision win, even if he is the less fresh fighter heading into the third and final stanza. He is generally the faster fighter of the two and has superior technique. Should the fight hit the cards, I expect his speed, technique and volume will be the difference. I think Magny is an opponent he can land a good number of strikes on, as he is no a very big threat to finish offensively. Gabe’s Recommended Play: Larkin (+120) 3.5u to win 4.2u
