UFC 201: Lawler vs Woodley Date: July 30, 2016 Arena: Philips Arena City: Atlanta, GA The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to Atlanta, GA for the third time in promotional histor with UFC 201: Lawler vs Woodley. The action packed 12 fight card is set to kick off on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30pm ET with preliminary action, which will continue on FOX Sprots 2 at 8pm ET. Main card action will be live on Pay Per View at 10pm ET. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Fights to AVOID betting are: Light Heavyweight bout: Ed Herman (+135) vs Nikita Krylov (-155) Gabe’s Thoughts: Krylov gets a step up in competition with this match-up against the veteran Herman but it is a fight is is expected to win more times than not, according to the betting lines. I am not sure I agree with that. On that same note, I am not confident in Herman in this spot. I slightly favor him to get his hand raised, but I don’t see enough value in him at his current underdog price tag of +135 to make me pull the trigger on a wager. I think this is a close fight and could be a contender for the evening’s ‘Fight of the Night’ honors. Gabe’s Call: Herman by Technical Submission (guillotine choke, 1:35 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Lightweight bout: Cesar Arzamendia (+100) vs Damien Brown (-120) Gabe’s Thoughts: Arzamendia suffered a first round knockout against Polo Reyes eight months ago in what was his promotional debut and he will now be looking to earn his first victory inside the Octagon by taking out Brown. The Australia is in search of his own first UFC victory, coming off a unanimous decision loss against Brazil’s Alan Patrick in what was his promotional debut. I think Arzamendia is the better fighter of the two here and favor him to get the job done via T/KO or decision and do think he should be slightly favored at the sportsbooks, however his chin and cardio are concerns at the moment and I would prefer to sit back and observe him in his second Octagon appearance without having action on it. I think Brown is an opponent he can and should beat, but I don’t trust that he will. If he has good fight IQ, he will pace himself so he doesn’t gas early. If he does pace himself, I think he can manage to win the first two rounds and ultimately pick up a nod from the judges at Octagon-side. Gabe’s Call: Arzamendia by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
