Prior to each UFC fight card, Jay Primetown takes a look at some of the key contests at each event. In the latest installment, we look at the top fight on the preliminary card on UFC on Fox 20 as 12th ranked bantamweight Frankie Saenz takes on 15th ranked Eddie Wineland. Frankie Saenz (Record: 11-3, -160 Favorite, Fighter Grade: B) The Phoenix, Arizona based bantamweight has been a surprise thus far in his UFC career. Prior to a competitive decision loss to Urijah Faber, Saenz had won his first three fights in the UFC including a dominant decision over Iuri Alcantara. At 35 years old, Saenz is a classic case of a late blooming MMA career. Saenz entered the UFC with solid wrestling accolades having competed in wrestling collegiately at Northern Colorado and Arizona State. He’s done very well in that regard in the UFC, successfully securing 40% of his takedown attempts and averaging 2.25 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. Where Saenz has surprised is in the standup. He puts out a relentless pace landing a terrific 4.28 significant strikes a minute in the cage. He’s a fighter that doesn’t allow his opponent an opportunity to rest. It’s that tenacity that really turned heads in his fight with Faber. Saenz has proven battle tested and is a difficult fighter to finish. From a technical stand point, Saenz is not a fighter that jumps off the paper. But his work ethic has certainly proven him to be a top 15 bantamweight in the world. Eddie Wineland (Record: 21-11, +140 Underdog, Fighter Grade: C) The Texas born, Indiana trained fighter has been a mainstay at the highest levels of the bantamweight division. Wineland reached his peak in 2013 when he found himself in a title fight with Renan Barao. Including that fight, Wineland has lost three of his last four contests. This is Wineland’s first fight since a July 2015 decision defeat to Bryan Caraway. A former high school wrestler, Wineland turned to MMA at a very young age. At 18, he fought in his first professional fight and now 13 years later he’s still competing at a high level. Despite a blue belt in jiu jitsu, Wineland’s at his best in the stand up. The Indiana native has really good footwork and combines that with a powerful right hand and a solid left jab. He lands northward of three significant strikes a minute inside the cage. Furthermore, he’s able to keep fights standing defending an excellent 85% of takedowns attempted. Wineland does have a tendency to keep his hands low which has been an issue in some of his fights. He’s had his jaw broken in two bouts; nearly retiring after it was broken for the second time in a 2014 loss to Johnny Eduardo. With those injuries, Wineland has had significant gaps between his recent fights only having been inside the cage just once since 2014. Match-up In a match-up of top 15 bantamweights, Eddie Wineland gets a home game against Frankie Saenz. Despite being nearly four years older than his opponent, Saenz is the fresher fighter inside the cage. Saenz has only been fighting since 2009 and hasn’t taken the kind of damage that Wineland has. Wineland has been fighting since 2003 and the wear and tear has certainly shown in recent fights. Wineland has proven to be less durable and in his last fight against Bryan Caraway he was more tentative on the feet. That’s not a good situation given his opponent on Saturday night. Saenz is a fight who thrives on pushing the pace, getting in an opponent’s face, and making scrappy contests. Wineland excels at keeping distance and using movement to avoid strikes. It’s a poor matchup for Wineland as Saenz will be utilizing more volume and will land strikes from different angles moving in. Look for Saenz to excel in the clinch and potentially land some takedowns doing even more damage in this fight. A tentative Wineland has a very small chance to win in this fight as Saenz will pour on the volume and at a minimum win a clear decision. If Wineland turns back the clock and is able to frustrate Saenz, he could win this bout. Unfortunately, there’s no reason to think that Wineland will be able to revert to his 2013 form. Saenz is one of my more confident plays on this card at -160.
