UFC on FOX 20: Holm vs Shevchenko Date: July 23, 2016 Arena: United Center City: Chicago, IL The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to the United Center in Chicago, IL this Saturday (July 23, 2016) with UFC on FOX 20: Holm vs Shevchenko. The action packed 12-fight card is set to kick on UFC Fight Pass at 4pm ET with some preliminary match-ups, and they will keep going on FOX Sports 1 at 6pm ET, with the main card getting underway at 8pm ET on FOX. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Over/Under Totals are: Welterweight bout: Kamaru Usman (-230) vs Alexander Yakovlev (+190) Gabe’s Thoughts: Yakovlev is a solid wrestler in his own right but I think he will be at a wrestling disadvantage heading into this contest, and he will also be giving up the edge in strength. I think Usman will find success is keeping the Russian against the cage and on the mat for the majority of 15 minutes of action en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. Usman is coming off a unanimous decision win over Leon Edwards and Yakovlev is coming off a first round knockout of George Sullivan. Both 170-pounders will be looking for a big win in this contest to continue to climb the ranks of the UFC’s welterweight division. It may be a lackluster affair, but I think Usman comes out on top more often than not, and I see him winning on the judges’ scorecards nearly 100% of the time, as I have trouble seeing him finish Yakovlev. There’s a small chance Yakovlev could stifle Usman’s wrestling and make this a boxing match, in which case he could walk away with the win on the judges’ scorecards. For that reason, I am opting to keep things safe and play the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at -210, rather than taking Usman straight up at -230. Gabe’s Call: Usman by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-210) 4.2u to win 2u Featherweight bout: Jim “The Beast” Alers (-220) vs Jason Knight (+180) Gabe’s Thoughts: Knight has a solid ground game and has a good guard, but I don’t like his chances of submitting the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt Alers. I think Alers will find success outwrestling Knight and avoiding his submission attempts. However, I am not certain he will use wrestling as his game-plan to win this fight, as he could also very well be capable of winning this fight on the feet. I do think this is his fight to lose and could see him winning both via striking or grappling. Though, regardless of how he gets his hand raised, I think he gets the win on the judges’ scorecards much more often than not, as I see him having trouble putting way Knight, who is a durable and game opponent. It is also a slight possibility that Alers could fade after the first round and Knight could edge the second and third for a close decision win against Alers, which makes me favor the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at -225 over taking Alers straight up at his current offering price of -220. Gabe’s Call: Alers by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-225) 2.25u to win 1u
