TUF 23 Finale Date: July 8, 2016 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will be in Las Vegas on Friday, July 8th with The Ultimate Fighter Season 23 Finale, which will be headlined by a women’s strawweight title fight between defending champion Joanna Jędrzejczyk and challenger Claudia Gadelha. The main card will be underway at 10pm ET on FOX Sports 1, with preliminary action preceding it on the same channel at 8pm ET and 6:45pm ET on UFC Fight Pass prior to that. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Fights to AVOID betting are: Featherweight bout: Doo Ho Choi (-225) vs Thiago Tavares (+185) Gabe’s Thoughts: Choi gets a big step up in competition with this match-up and is faced with the biggest test of his professional mixed martial arts career. I think he should be a 2-to-1 betting favorite heading into this contest, so while I do favor him to get his hand raised, I see no betting value in his current offering price of -224; nor do I see value in his opponent Tavares at his underdog price tag of +185. This is a classic striker vs grappler match-up and while I favor the striker (Choi) to either score a knockout or use his superior striking to win the fight on the scorecards, I do think there’s a good chance Tavares finds success with his superior grappling and outwrestles Choi for a decision victory of his own, potentially securing a submission along the way. This is a great match-up and should be a fun fight, one that would be better to avoid at the sportsbooks, and just sit back and enjoy. Gabe’s Call: Choi by T/KO (punches, 1:40 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Lightweight bout: Andrew Holbrook (+110) vs Joaquim Silva (-130) Gabe’s Thoughts: This is a close fight and one of the toughest of the entire week for me to call. I agree with the betting odds in that it is more or less a coin-flip match-up. As for my official pick, I keep going back and forth, but currently side with the Brazilian due to what I believe are advantages in striking and power. I think Silva the fighter more likely to finish the fight, but I think there is a decent chance Holbrook is able to outwrestle him for the majority of two out of three rounds to pick up a decision win. Silva has solid takedown defense and when taken down does a good job of working his way back to his feet; that said, I think Holbrook could find enough success with his takedowns to potentially edge two rounds in the eyes’ of the judges at Octagon-side. At the current odds, I don’t see any betting value in either 155-pounder, so ultimately I think this is a fight that should be left alone at the sportsbooks come Friday. I say skip this one, folks. Gabe’s Call: Silva by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
