UFC 200 Date: July 9, 2016 Arena: T-Mobile Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will be in the new T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday July 9th, 2016 with UFC 200, the most stacked card in the promotion’s history with 12 exciting bouts, including three title fights and the return of Brock Lesnar. The main card will be kicking off at 10pm ET on Pay Per View, with preliminary action preceding it on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm ET and UFC Fight Pass at 6:30pm ET. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Over/Under Totals are: Bantamweight bout: TJ Dillashaw (-425) vs Raphael Assuncao (+340) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this is a closer fight than the betting odds indicate and personally see this as a “dog or pass” situation. I can in no way, shape or form fault anyone for taking Assuncao at +340, but personally, I am going to have to pass. If not for the extended layoff and possible ring rust, I would have likely taken a shot on him. That said, I am not keeping my wallet away from this 135-pound contest altogether, as I do see value in the Total of Under 2.5 rounds at +175. Their initial meeting reached the judges’ scorecards for a split decision that went Assuncao’s way, and this time around, I think both bantamweights will be fighting for the finish in an effort to make a statement and leave the judges out of it. Both fighters have previously been knocked out, so if they engage and indeed do fight for the finish, I think there’s a very good chance one of them succeeds and ends the fight with strikes; or possibly a submission, as both 135-pounders have excellent submissions in their arsenal. Gabe’s Call: Dillashaw by T/KO (head-kick and punches, 3:15 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 2.5 rounds (+175) 1u to win 1.75u Lightweight bout: Sage Northcutt (-340) vs Enrique Marin (+280) Gabe’s Thoughts: Northcutt heads back down to 155-pounds after suffering his first professional mixed martial arts career loss in his first appearance in the UFC’s welterweight division. The loss came against Bryan Barbarena, who had competed at lightweight himself prior to their contest. Northcutt lost that bout via controversial submission in the second round, and the reason it was controversial was because many believed that it was not possible for him to really be in much trouble in the position Barbarena had him in. Here “Super” Sage has a chance to get back in the win column and climb the ranks of the UFC’s 155-pound division. Marin is a game opponent and trains out of Kings MMA in Huntington Beach, CA under the tutelage of Master Rafael Cordeiro, but I think he is out-gunned in this contest. I think Northcutt should be a 3-to-1 betting favorite here, so I see no value in him at his current asking price of -340, and don’t recommend taking Marin at +280, either. I don’t think either lightweight is worth a wager at these odds, however I do like the Total of Under 1.5 rounds, as I do think the most likely outcome is Northcutt defeating Marin in the opening stanza, by either T/KO or submission. I think his speed and athleticism will ultimately be the difference, just as it was in his promotional debut against fellow Legacy FC veteran Francisco Trevino. Gabe’s Call: Northcutt by T/KO (strikes, 0:41 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 1.5 rounds (+105) 2u to win 2.1u
