UFC Fight Night 90: dos Anjos vs Alvarez Date: July 7, 2016 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in Las Vegas on Thursday, July 7th with UFC Fight Night 90: dos Anjos vs Alvarez. The 12-fight card airs entirely on UFC Fight Pass, with preliminary action kicking off 6:30pm ET, with main card action getting underway at 10pm ET. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Over/Under Totals are: Welterweight bout: Alvaro Herrera (+350) vs Vicente Luque (-440) Gabe’s Thoughts: I don’t think there’s any betting value in American Top Team’s Luque at his current heavy-juiced offering price of -440, though I do like him to win this fight and go two straight in the UFC’s welterweight division. I think Luque by submission is the most likely outcome to this contest and I think the Brazilian gets the job done in under a round and a half more often than not, which makes me like the Total of Under 1.5 rounds at +105 for a play. Even in an upset, I think this wager will still cash, because if Herrera manages to get his hand raised, I think it will likely be via early T/KO. Gabe’s Call: Luque by Submission (armbar, 1:50 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 1.5 rounds (+105) 2u to win 2.1u Lightweight bout: Gilbert Burns (-240) vs Lukasz Sajewski (+200) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Burns gets back on track with a win here and I favor him to pick it up by submission, most likely in under a round and a half. The Total offered is at 2.5 rounds, so I really like the Under 2.5 rounds at +150 for a wager here. Burns has a massive edge in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu heading into this 155-pound contest, but the question is if he will be able to take the fight to the mat. I think yes. I see this fight playing out similar to his bout against Christos Giagos. Should Sajewski manage to get his hand raised and pick up his first UFC victory, I think there’s a decent chance he will do so via T/KO, which I think makes this play even safer than just taking Burns straight up at -240. Not only do I think the Under 2.5 rounds at +150 is the safer play, but I believes it offers far more value than taking the Brazilian straight up at -240. Gabe’s Call: Burns by Submission (rear naked choke, 4:40 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 2.5 rounds (+150) 2.5u to win 3.75u
