UFC Fight Night 88: Almeida vs Garbrandt Date: May 29, 2016 Arena: Mandalay Bay Events Center City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in Las Vegas, NV with UFC Fight Night 88: Almeida vs Garbrandt. The night of action features 11 bouts, culminating with a five round bantamweight showdown between two of the most feared, undefeated prospects in the division. Preliminary card action gets underway at 6pm ET on UFC Fight Pass and 7pm ET on FOX Sports 1, with the main card kicking off on the same channel at 9pm ET. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my live dogs: Middleweight bout: Chris Camozzi (+200) vs Vitor Miranda (-240) Gabe’s Thoughts: I keep going back and forth for my official pick, as I see this being a close fight. However, at the current betting odds, I think the value is with Camozzi at +200. If the fight stays standing, I do favor Camozzi to edge it out on the judges’ scorecards, potentially finding a T/KO finish along the way, as I do believe he possesses the better chin of the two 185-pound fighters. Should this be a striking battle that reaches the judges’ scorecards for a decision, I could see the nod going either way, but I think Camozzi earns it more often than not. That said, I think there is a decent chance Miranda mixes in some takedowns and puts Camozzi on his back and wins rounds that way, and for that reason, I am not making a big play on Camozzi and am opting to keep it small. Both middleweights currently have momentum on their side, and I think this fight will ultimately come down to if Miranda decides to take Camozzi down; and if he does, the question would become if Camozzi’s takedown defense has improved since being released from his second stint with the promotion, prior to being brought for his current third stint. To conclude; it is not a safe play, but I think Camozzi at 2-to-1 underdog odds is the right side here. Gabe’s Call: Camozzi by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Camozzi (+200) 1.5u to win 3u Lightweight bout: Joshua Burkman (+215) vs Paul Felder (-255) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this 155-pound match-up is a lot closer than the current betting odds suggest. I favor Felder to get his hand raised, but I don’t think he should be such a heavy favorite. I think he should be in the -150 to -190 range, so at these odds, I see some betting value in the underdog Burkman at his current offering price of +215. Both fighters will be aiming to make it two in a row for themselves in the UFC’s 155-pound division, as they look to climb up the crowded division’s ranks. Gabe’s Call: Felder by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Burkman (+215) 1u to win 2.15u
