UFC Fight Night 87 Date: May 8, 2016 Arena: Ahoy Rotterdam City: Rotterdam, Netherlands The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to The Netherlands for the first time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 87: Overeem vs Arlovski. The 12-fight card will kick off on UFC Fight Pass at 10am ET with prelminary action, which will continue on FOX Sports 1 at noon ET, and the main card will get underway on the same channel at 2pm ET. If interested in wagering on any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Over/Under Totals are: Middleweight bout: Garreth McLellan (+235) vs Magnus Cedenblad (-275) Gabe’s Thoughts: I believe Cedenblad has a massive edge in grappling heading into this contest and I see him using it to control McLellan over the course of three rounds to pick up a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. He will be threatening with submissions, but I think there’s a good chance McLellan’s submission defense holds him and he survives to till the final bell. I think this is Cedenblad’s fight to lose and I think he holds value at -275, but I think he wins this fight past the 1.5 round mark more often than not, so I see more value in the Total of Over 1.5 rounds at the current offering price of -170. Gabe’s Call: Cedenblad by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 1.5 rounds (-170) 3.4u to win 2u Flyweight bout: Ulka Sasaki (+130) vs Willie Gates (-150) Gabe’s Thoughts: Sasaki is making his flyweight debut in this bout and will be hae a size advantage over Gates, who himself is large for the division. I believe Sasaki is the superior grappler of the two and I see him finding success in taking this fight to the mat early, where it will be a matter of time before he secures a submission to end Gates’ night. I think Sasaki holds value at his current underdog tag of +130, but I think there is more value in the Total of Under 1.5 rounds at +125. The reason for that is becaus I think the two most likely outcomes to this bout are Sasaki by first round submission or Gates by first round T/KO, and I opt to play it safe by taking the +125 for the early finish rather than +130 for having all my eggs in the Sasaki basket. Gabe’s Call: Sasaki by Submission (rear naked c hoke, 0:54 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 1.5 rounds (+125) 3u to win 3.75u
