UFC on FOX 17 Date: December 19, 2015 Arena: Amway Center City: Orlando, FL The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns this Saturday (December 19, 2015) to Orlando, FL with UFC on FOX 17: Dos Anjos vs Cerrone 2. The action-packed 13 fight card will get going with the Fight Pass prelims at 3:30pm ET and the FOX Sports 1 prelims to follow at 5pm ET, with main card action getting underway at 8pm ET on FOX. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are a couple of my preliminary card plays: Women’s Bantamweight bout: Sarah Kaufman (-225) vs Valentina Shevchenko (+185) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Kaufman has pissed off UFC brass by publicly complaining about not having a fight, because here it seems they are giving her an unknown promotional newcomer who is a legitimate threat to her. This is a fight she could easily lose and does not stand to gain much with a win. It is more or less a paycheck fight for the veteran, but she is motivated and hungry, and will certainly show up on fight night looking to get her hand raised. I think this is a close fight and I keep going back and forth for my official pick, so I would have to see them both on the scale before putting it in stone. I think the question in this fight will be what Kaufman’s gameplan is. If she decides to outwrestle Shevchenko, I think she could find success, though I am not sold if she will be able to score takedowns. If the fight takes place on the feet, she could be in trouble and lose a decision when it hits the judges’ scorecards. I think this is a close fight, and while I slighly lean Kaufman, I think the betting value here is with the underdog Shevchenko at her current offering price of +185. Gabe’s Call: Kaufman by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Shevchenko (+185) 1u to win 1.85u Lightweight bout: Danny Castillo (-115) vs Nik Lentz (-105) Gabe’s Thoughts: I believe Castillo is the superior mixed martial artist heading into this 155-pound contest and I see him getting the better of “The Carney” both on the feet and on the mat for three rounds of action en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards, potentially securing a T/KO stoppage along the way. He showed great improvements in his striking his last time out and I expect he will have the advantage on the feet against Lentz heading into this match-up. After a failed run at 145-pounds, Lentz returns to the lightweight division, and with title shot dreams behind him, I think he is just fighting for a paycheck now, while Castillo still truly believes he could make a successful run for the gold. I see “Last Call” as being the hungrier, more motivated fighter of the two, despite the advantages in size and skill-set. I like him to get his hand raised tomorrow night in Florida and save his spot on the UFC’s 155-pound roster. I don’t see Lentz outwrestling Castillo for two out of three rounds and the chances of him catching him with a knockout blow are slim. I have a really hard time seeing a guy who barely defeated Manny Gamburyan and got dominated by Charles Oliveira in his last two fights beat a guy who arguably defeated Tony Ferguson and Jim Miller in two of his recent split decision losses. I think Castillo should be a -280 betting favorite heading into this match-up and I love him for a big play at his current offering price of -115. Luckily, I was able to score him at +100, as well. Gabe’s Call: Castillo by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Castillo (-115) 5.75u to win 5u Heavyweight bout: Francis Ngannou (-115) vs Luiz Henrique (-105) Gabe’s Thoughts: Ngannou will have a massive size advantage over Henrique heading into this contest, not to mention a big advantage on the feet; both in striking and power. I see him being physically and athletically too much for the Brazilian in this contest and putting him away early. He is making his promotional debut on the very first fight of the prelims for this card and I expect him to get the show started on a high-note, with a highlight reel, T/KO finish. I think Ngannou has a future in the UFC’s heavyweight division and they only signed Henrique to give him an opponent to beat, as they likely feel he is not ready to take on the current heavyweights on the roster and needs to be brought along slowly. He has a lot of potential and I believe we will prove so on Saturday night. Gabe’s Call: Ngannou by T/KO (strikes, 0:23) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Ngannou (-115) 3.45u to win 3u
