UFC 158: March 16, 2013 Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St-Pierre (-440) Profile: Without a doubt one of the greatest fighters in the history of MMA, Georges St-Pierre (23-2) has been virtually untouchable in the welterweight division for the better part of the last decade. He has defended his welterweight title seven straight times – second only to middleweight champ Anderson Silva – and has dominated nearly every fight he’s been in since 2007. He takes his training to another level, surrounds himself with the best coaches and is an unbelievable athlete. GSP has cardio for days and is technically a phenomenal boxer and wrestler. He can stifle his opponents with a smothering ground game or keep the fight standing if that happens to be in his favor. The only two smudges on GSP’s stellar resume came via a shocking loss to Matt Serra in 2007, and the first setback of his career against Matt Hughes for the welterweight title back in 2004. As of late, GSP has taken heat for his inability – or possible reluctance – to finish his opponents in the Octagon, as if he’s playing it safe. These statements are somewhat unfounded since he broke Josh Koscheck’s orbital bone in a bludgeoning performance and nearly yanked Dan Hardy’s arm out of the socket in their respective fights. GSP successfully recovered from a torn ACL in his right knee that kept him out of action for nearly 19 months and ground out another UD victory against Carlos Condit at UFC 154 in his first fight back from the injury. UFC Welterweight Contender Nick Diaz (+340) Profile: Nick Diaz (26-8, 1 No-Contest) has been at or near the top of the welterweight division in MMA for the better part of three years now, beginning with his victory over Marius Zaromskis in January of 2010 for the Strikeforce welterweight title. Diaz went on to defend his title three times in the now-defunct organization until he moved back to the UFC. In a fairly famous “meltdown,” Diaz was pulled from his immediate UFC title shot against reigning welterweight king Georges St-Pierre after missing multiple press conferences to promote the fight. He was then matched up with B.J. Penn, who he handily defeated at UFC 137. Then after GSP was injured in training, Condit and Diaz fought for the interim belt with Condit winning a fairly controversial unanimous decision. Diaz received not only his first loss in years, but he was later suspended for 12 months by the Nevada State Athletic Commission for testing positive for marijuana metabolites. With his suspension now behind him, he will finally get an opportunity to fight for the title thanks to GSP’s request. Opening UFC 158 Odds Analysis: MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas made the champ St-Pierre a large -440 favorite (bet $440 to win $100) while the challenger Diaz opened as a +340 underdog (bet $100 to win $340) at Several Bookmakers sportsbook. Wrestling is the biggest weakness for Diaz, and he will have almost no shot at winning the title if GSP takes this fight to the ground as expected. Diaz does not believe MMA fans want to see a wrestling match, which he said is one reason why he is getting this opportunity over No. 1 contender Johny Hendricks. However, he may not have a choice and could fall into the same trap that his brother Nate did when he fought Benson Henderson for the UFC lightweight championship. St-Pierre is quite simply a stronger man and will obviously look to use that strength to his advantage by taking Diaz down and subjecting him to relentless ground-and-pound. GSP was able to bloody Condit in his return to the Octagon after a lengthy absence and wore him down over five rounds. While Diaz certainly has the stamina to go the distance, his strategy of baiting his opponent into making mistakes and turning this bout into a boxing match likely will not work against a mixed martial artist as smart as St-Pierre. Diaz has turned the pre-fight build-up into a war of words in hopes of getting under GSP’s skin, trying to gain some sort of psychological edge. Koscheck tried a similar strategy during TUF 12 and ended up with a broken orbital bone. With renowned trainer Firas Zahabi in his corner, St-Pierre has been more focused on shutting Diaz up inside the cage than outside it. Diaz has clearly irritated and disrespected GSP enough to get him to want to fight, but he will need to turn those words into action – and plenty of it – if he is going to spring the upset and leave their title bout with the belt.
