UFC on FOX 4: August 4, 2012 Staples Center in Los Angeles, California UFC Light Heavyweight Contender Lyoto Machida (-285) Profile: Like his upcoming opponent fellow light heavyweight contender Ryan Bader, Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (17-3) has experienced all of his career losses recently since winning the light heavyweight championship three years ago. And each of his three losses has come against either current or former champs in the division. Machida lost to Jones via standing guillotine choke at UFC 140 last December 10 after knocking out Randy Couture at UFC 129 to end the MMA legend’s career. He earned the light heavyweight title with a second-round KO of Rashad Evans at UFC 98 and defended it against Mauricio “Shogun” Rua at UFC 104 with a unanimous decision win before Rua took his belt in a rematch at UFC 113 by first-round KO. UFC Light Heavyweight Contender Ryan Bader (+215) Profile: Ryan Bader (15-2) has suffered his two career losses in his last four fights, falling to former light heavyweight champion Tito Ortiz and current champ Jon Jones, both by guillotine choke submission. Those two setbacks came in consecutive bouts, and since then he has knocked out Jason Brilz at UFC 139 and earned a unanimous decision victory against Quinton “Rampage” Jackson at UFC 144 in his last fight on February 26. Bader won Season 8 of The Ultimate Fighter with a first-round TKO of Vinny Magalhaes and has had opportunities to make a name for himself in the light heavyweight division. This will be yet another chance for him to come through against a top-level contender and atone for his earlier losses to Ortiz and Jones. Opening UFC on FOX 4 Odds Analysis: MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas has made Machida a -285 favorite (bet $285 to win $100) against Bader, who is a +215 underdog (bet $100 to win $215) according to the MMA odds. Machida is clearly a more superior and well-rounded fighter than his opponent, although you could argue both of them equally need a big win here in order to stay in the title mix. While the champ Jones handled each of them rather easily, Machida still has a lot more experience than Bader and has battled tougher opponents throughout his career. The two also have another common opponent in Jackson, although Bader faced him when he failed to make weight in what could end up being his last UFC fight while Machida lost to Rampage by a controversial split decision. Machida’s level of competition has simply been much higher and should give him a huge edge in a fight he must win. Meanwhile, Bader may be facing less pressure but has yet to register a signature victory in his career that would make MMA bettors respect his record. This would certainly be it.
